2027 NFL Draft QB Power Rankings: Drew Mestemaker, Arch Manning In Tight Battle For No. 1

We’re less than six months out from the 2027 NFL Draft, yet scouts across the league are still wondering how robust this year’s class of quarterbacks will be. If all the top prospects on my board were to enter the draft early, it could be historic, perhaps matching the six first-rounders we saw back in 2024. Of course, we won’t know who is officially available until mid-January. But roughly three months into the college season, here’s how the QB class currently stacks up. DAY 3 PROSPECTS While they possess enough talent to earn NFL interest, season-ending injuries to underclassmen Julian Sayin (Ohio State) and Nico Iamaleava (UCLA) will likely earn them Day 3 evaluations from the NFL Advisory Committee and probably convince each to return and play college football next year. As expected, Sam Leavitt (LSU) is putting up big numbers in Lane Kiffin’s explosive offense, but I haven’t seen the development as a passer that I was hoping to see. The ball doesn’t jump out of his hand, and while he’s a determined and gritty runner, Leavitt is neither fast nor particularly big at 6-foot-2, 207-pounds. He threw for a gaudy 380 yards in LSU’s humbling 31-13 loss to Alabama, but that was more about quantity than quality. There werefew pro-caliber throws and a lot of safety net checkdowns on third-and-longs. Gunner Stockton (Georgia) is also a pretty straightforward evaluation for the NFL. Given the Bulldogs’ run-heavy offense, Stockton is more accustomed to play-action passing from under center and surveying the entire field. He reads defenses well and is eager to attack downfield when defenses creep up, showing the awareness and courage teams want at the position. He’s also a gutty and underrated athlete. He can extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield and, like Leavitt, is a productive runner. Stockton can heave the deep ball, but his longer throws lack elite accuracy. They tend to flutter and force his wideouts to adjust. Frankly, that’s why if I’m investing a Day 3 pick on a quarterback in this class, I’m gambling on the bigger arm from John Mateer (Oklahoma). There is no denying that Stockton has shown more consistency than Mateer, but the latter simply has a more intriguing skill set and higher upside. Mateer has a snappy release and the ball jumps out of his hand. He can zing passes through tight windows and has improved his accuracy on short to intermediate throws this season from last year. This was a difficult (and undeniably dangerous) throw that sealed a win against Florida on Saturday. Since an ugly home loss to Kentucky in which he threw three interceptions, Mateer has gone three consecutive games without throwing a pick, tossing six touchdowns during that time while helping the Sooners win on the road at Mississippi State and in The Swamp. DAY 2 PROSPECTS Brendan Sorsby hasn’t played all season, of course, because of his gambling suspension. It doesn’t change the fact he is a legitimately gifted quarterback with the talent to eventually start in the NFL. Some teams will be unwilling to overlook his transgressions, making it tough to project his draft stock. I’m listing him here again because I had a Day 2 grade on him when it briefly appeared he would be in a supplemental draft. Given that Jayden Maiava (USC) can claim wins over Ohio State, Penn State and Washington over the past month, it might surprise readers that he hasn’t moved on my board. That’s in part due to the stinker against Wisconsin in between all those flashy wins, a 24-7 loss in Madison in which Maiava threw two ugly interceptions. The first came after he’d called for an audible at the line of scrimmage and then floated a deep ball into double coverage. The second, shown below, involved Maiava panicking in a collapsing pocket and recklessly flicking a short pass into traffic. Maiava entered the year as one of the most celebrated signal-callers, but he’s clearly missed receivers (and 2026 NFL draft picks) Makai Lemon and JaKobi Lane. But there are still plenty of wow throws on Maiava’s tape. He is dangerous on the rollout, showing impressive field vision and arm strength to heave deep balls down the sideline. While I see a quality Day 2 prospect with starter upside, his game seems to have plateaued this season. Conversely, LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) is among my biggest risers over the past month. After a poor start, I previously listed Sellers among the prospects whose NFL draft stock had slid the most. That looks premature now, and I’m happy to reverse course and celebrate Sellers’ much improved play. He has helped South Carolina reel off four consecutive wins against Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, with the victories against the Gators and Sooners coming on the road. Sellers tossed nine touchdowns against three interceptions over this span with six rushing scores. There are some true highlight reel plays in those games. The kind of plays that leave lasting impressions on general managers scouting in person. Boasting arguably the best combination of size, speed and arm strength of this quarterback class, Sellers is a good bet to impress in workouts. And everything I’ve seen (and heard) about him as a person and leader suggests that he’ll win in the interview process as well. If Sellers can continue his recent torrid stretch, he could play his way into the first round. DAY 1 PROSPECTS Similar to Sorsby, but for very different reasons, Dante Moore (Oregon) could prove to be a real draft wild card. His 2026 on-field evaluation ended in late September after he suffered a season-ending concussion. It’s important to note he is a redshirt junior with another year of college eligibility, should he want to use it. Moore played well prior to the injury — tossing nine touchdowns without an interception in four games — though he was outplayed by fellow top Qb prospect Drew Mestemaker in an early loss to Oklahoma State. He also struggled in prime-time showdowns with Indiana a year ago. I believe accuracy is the single most important quality when evaluating quarterbacks, and Moore is as gifted in that area as any passer in the 2027 class. If he opts for the NFL and gets a clean bill of health, he’s a lock to go in the first round. Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) has exhibited NFL starting-caliber poise throughout the past two seasons, including in a Sugar Bowl win over Georgia as well as in guiding Ferris State to a D-II national championship in 2024. But there is no denying that Chambliss was rattled against the Bulldogs in a 42-7 loss this past weekend. For the first time in 22 starts for Ole Miss, Chambliss was held out of the end zone. He completed only 18 of 34 passes (52.9%) for 170 yards and no touchdowns. He also threw this inexcusable interception. Chambliss (and his Rebels teammates) struggled to diagnose Georgia’s defense, and even when they did, the Bulldogs’ bigger and superior athletes simply outclassed Ole Miss. It was a hard watch for anyone projecting Chambliss as a future NFL starting quarterback. It was the best evidence to date that Chambliss might be what some of his skeptics claim: a very good college quarterback benefitting from a relatively simple offense whose physical limitations will be exposed in the NFL. His season-long statistics suggest as much. A year after leading the SEC with 3,937 passing yards and a sparkling 22:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio under the tutelage of gifted playcaller Lane Kiffin, Chambliss now leads the SEC in interceptions (9). Simply put, Chambliss will need to play better down the stretch to be a first-round selection in the spring. But I won’t allow recency bias to dissuade me too much. Chambliss has a lot more good tape than bad over his college career and NFL teams will recognize that the Bulldogs and defensive-minded head coach Kirby Smart came in extra motivated to exact some revenge. I’m eager to see how Chambliss responds against a talented Oklahoma defense on Saturday. Years ago, I hosted a podcast with former NFL general manager Scot McCloughan, who now runs his own talent evaluation service and serves as an unofficial advisor to several pro teams. Among the many insights that McCloughan provided on our show was how heavily he weighed success in the red zone in his quarterback evaluations. This is an area that Darian Mensah (Miami) has performed particularly well over his college career, and even in last Saturday’s loss to Notre Dame. Teams are a little hesitant to stamp a first-round grade on Mensah because he has a slender 6-foot-3, 205-pound frame and doesn’t possess a howitzer for an arm. He relies on his anticipation and accuracy to complete throws since he doesn’t often drive balls to the outside. He throws a beautiful back-shoulder fade, however, and can drop to sidearm and zip slants through traffic — two staples of any NFL offense in the close quarters of the red zone. The touchdown below was the second of two well-thrown fades. The first one, an even more accurate ball, was lofted to the left. This one, to the right, turned a contest the Irish had dominated into a one-possession game. Incidentally, a large part of the reason Mensah and the Hurricanes were playing from behind was because of how well CJ Carr (Notre Dame) was playing on the other side. Carr doesn’t have as many big-time throws on his résumé, but I believe that is more of a testament to his mind, rather than a slight to his arm. As one might expect from a football legacy such as Carr — whose grandfather, Lloyd, is the third winningest coach in Michigan history and whose father, Jason, played quarterback under his dad with the Wolverines — the game seems to come naturally to him. He’s unfazed by the bright lights and makes his living reading defenses at the snap, rarely risking the ball in traffic. Carr regularly diagnoses where the vulnerabilities are in the defense and makes timely, accurate throws. He threw for a season-high 319 yards and three touchdowns in Notre Dame’s 31-24 win over Miami. That gives him 21 touchdown passes on the season (with just one interception). Layered throws such as this one below — with a defender bearing down on him — may not be viewed as highlight-reel-worthy to some fans, but they translate well to the NFL. Chambliss’ track record and Carr’s poise will earn kudos from scouts, but the quarterbacks who typically are drafted first are the ones with the flashiest traits — which brings us to Arch Manning (Texas) and Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State). I’ve written extensively about Manning. Even after his worst moments, I’ve argued that his size, speed and arm talent scream first-round pick. And the reality is, after some ugly, almost mystifying performances earlier this season, Manning is playing well right now. In fact, he is coming off arguably the cleanest game of his career this past Saturday, a 34-20 win at Missouri in which he completed 28 of 38 passes (73.7%) for 297 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers. Manning was good throughout the game against Missouri but at his best in the fourth quarter, delivering on a trio of strikes on the Longhorns’ go-ahead drive to turn a 20-20 tie into a comfortable road win. I think the difficulty for some when evaluating Manning and Mestemaker comes down to their own expectations of the two signal-callers. Given his lineage, Manning is expected to be great. He is under a microscope with every snap. I wonder how well Mestemaker (or any of the other top quarterbacks in this class) would handle that pressure. The Oklahoma State QB has understandably gained traction as the “consensus” top prospect, but in the rush to anoint him as this year’s out-of-nowhere QB1, à la Joe Burrow, Cam Ward and Fernando Mendoza, some in the media are skipping over games that scouts cannot. Take Oklahoma State’s loss at Iowa State on Halloween, for example. On the surface, it would appear that Mestemaker had a brilliant game. For the seventh consecutive game, he threw for over 300 yards and five touchdowns in a 51-49 thriller. His final touchdown came with just 53 seconds remaining to give the Cowboys the lead. But frankly, the tape was more concerning than his last-minute heroics would suggest. On the previous drive, Mestermaker made a poor decision to throw late over the middle while rolling to his right, failing to account for drifting linebacker Beau Goodwin. To be fair, this was Mestemaker’s only interception of the game. However, he was guilty of a handful of other turnover-worthy throws against the Cyclones that would have resulted in “deli-meat” interceptions in the NFL. And lest you think this is a one-game hiccup, know that Mestemaker has struggled with turnover-worthy plays on the road all season. PFF has charted Mestemaker with 17 of them overall, with 14 of them coming on the road. Mestemaker is undeniably talented and merits a first-round gamble, but make no mistake, that is what he’d be if jumping into the NFL after this season. I believe the common comparisons to Josh Allen are valid because, like the Buffalo Bills’ MVP candidate (who played his collegiate ball at Wyoming), Mestemaker has enjoyed an inspirational rise from fifth-string QB at North Texas to future first-round pick. And, of course, he possesses a rare combination of size, arm talent and athleticism. The Cowboys’ No. 17 looks a lot like the Bills’ No. 17 on these two touchdowns, for example. But it is worth remembering that Allen was the third quarterback selected in the 2018 draft (behind Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold), and that his rookie season was a rocky one in which he completed just 52.8% of his passes with fewer touchdowns (10) than interceptions thrown (12). Mestemaker could develop into an NFL star, as Allen has. But even if that does transpire, it likely won’t happen quickly. Despite how Mestemaker is currently being celebrated, it’s still premature to assume he will turn pro after this season or that he has already establishd himself as the consensus top QB prospect in the draft.