NFL Trade Deadline: Where Will Top Targets Go? Execs Help Us Predict Landing Spots

It’s almost time for NFL teams to put the pencils down for the trade deadline. That means it’s also almost time for us to put our pencils down and get our final predictions in for what happens ahead of the trade deadline. So, we did just that. Ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline, we surveyed people around the league to find out where some of the top players on the market will end up. Will the Indianapolis Colts trade Jonathan Taylor? Will the Dallas Cowboys land one of the handful of standout pass rushers believed to be on the trade market? We asked those questions as we made predictions for the trade deadline and share some other things we’ve heard about the trade market. Here’s what we learned and what we think will happen before next Tuesday arrives. Ralph Vacchiano: One thing I know for sure is that the New York Giants really want him. Badly. The only question is how much they’re willing to pay. John Harbaugh was openly talking about adding a bell cow running back a few weeks ago, when he said, “I would love for us to be in that kind of a circumstance — a Derrick Henry circumstance or a Saquon Barkley circumstance.” The 28-year-old Taylor is his best bet (Tennessee’s Tony Pollard might be their Plan B). The problem, as one executive told me, is, “No one is sure if Indy is serious about trading him. What they want is an extraordinarily high price.” The word has been that they’re asking for a package like what the Carolina Panthers got from San Francisco for RB Christian McCaffrey in 2022 — a second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round pick. But one source told me, “I heard they wanted a first in the package.” The Giants are a little hamstrung by not having a fourth- or fifth-round pick in next year’s draft, so It’s possible they’d have to trade a first. Would they do it? It seems clear Harbaugh would. “They know they’ve got an opportunity” in a weak NFC East, one scout told me. “They want it.” Eric D. Williams: Seahawks general manager John Schneider said the Seahawks could still make a move before Tuesday’s trade deadline after already giving up third- and fifth-round picks to add offensive lineman Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts. But with a healthy first-round pick in Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet returning, Seattle is likely out of the mix for Taylor’s services. Instead, teams like the Giants, Packers and Vikings make more sense. “I wouldn’t give up a first-round pick,” an NFL talent evaluator told me. “Age is my concern, even with the durability factor. He is a healthy 27-year-old – a two and a four for me. A three and a four would be better. People aren’t desperate for RBs like QBs and pass rushers.” Vacchiano’s prediction: Taylor lands with New York Giants I think the Giants are going to get him and it’s going to feel like they overpaid, even if they somehow do it without giving up a first-round pick. “They’re thinking big,” one source told me, and team sources have indicated the same to me. They’ll add a defensive tackle too, but the ones left probably won’t be big-ticket items. This will be their big swing. Williams’ prediction: Taylor lands with Minnesota Vikings Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is under immense pressure to make Justin Jefferson happy and the offense work after a so-so performance by Kyler Murray through the first half of the season. And Minnesota general manager Nolan Teasley understands the importance a dynamic runner brings to an offense from his time with the Seattle Seahawks working for Scheider. The Vikings are the most desperate team playing in the most competitive division in the NFC North and make a move here. Vacchiano: A scout who saw him recently said, “He sure looks like he doesn’t want to be there anymore,” and sure enough, he asked for a trade last week. The Colts are clearly open for business, and it seems likely they’ll trade him. They reportedly set a price at a third-round pick, but one executive told me, “No one’s crazy enough to do that, not with all the other receivers who might be available.” Downs is only 25, but he’s a rental who is scheduled to hit free agency in March. He’s also just 5-foot-9 and probably a No. 2-3 receiver at best. Multiple sources told me the Kansas City Chiefs are interested. Another suggested the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are dealing with injuries to wide receivers Michael Pittman and Roman Wilson. Downs and Wilson would be a little redundant, though, so if Wilson (finger) is really coming back in late November, the Steelers might want to think bigger if they’re going to get quarterback Aaron Rodgers another weapon. Williams: Set to hit free agency at season’s end and looking to escape the dumpster fire in Indianapolis, Downs is a smooth route runner who could serve as a security blanket for an older, experienced quarterback like Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. One NFL front office executive told me there’s less of a miss factor with Downs over a younger receiver with upside like Brian Thomas Jr. “Downs gives them a consistent short-to-immediate threat,” the personnel executive told me. “Neither [Thomas nor Downs] will provide a high-volume target [for the Chiefs]. That will come in the draft next year.” Downs has just four drops on 138 targets over the last two seasons, according to Next Gen Stats. Vacchiano’s prediction: Downs lands with Pittsburgh Steelers The Colts are going to trade him for whatever they can get, and he makes the most sense for the Steelers, even if he’s similar to Wilson. The more weapons they can get for Aaron Rodgers on his last ride, the better. And since he can’t throw downfield like he used to, they’re better off with slot-types who can catch short passes and make big plays. Williams’ prediction: Downs lands with Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City has Travis Kelce to work the middle of the field — and that’s about it. Mahomes could use a sure-handed, twitchy route runner who can get open on got-to-have-it situations and move the chains for the Chiefs. So, it makes sense that the Chiefs have shown interest in Downs, and ultimately, I believe he lands there. Vacchiano: All the speculation I hear about the 29-year-old edge rusher is that he’s a perfect fit for the Dallas Cowboys, who really need someone to boost their pass rush and help out their defensive line. “He’s the perfect guy for Jerry Jones to throw his money at,” one scout told me. “He’ll have an impact. He won’t make the defense good. But he can pressure and he can help their run defense.” The bigger problem is that Sweat could be expensive. It’s not just that the Cardinals would likely want a second-round pick in return, but it’s also that many around the league believe Sweat is going to push for a new contract, or at least some new money, as part of any trade. He’s only in the second year of a four-year, $76 million contract. He also doesn’t have a no-trade clause, so he can’t block any move, but he can make things difficult if a new team doesn’t sweeten his pot. Williams: The Cardinals already traded an underperforming Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Houston Texans and moved quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the Baltimore Ravens, so it would make sense that Arizona would be interested in moving on from the 29-year-old Sweat. He totaled 20 sacks over the last two seasons entering 2026 and now has just four sacks in eight games. However, Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort was hired four years ago and is under some pressure to stack some wins after already firing Jonathan Gannon and hiring Mike LaFleur to replace him as head coach this offseason. “I think they are trying to win as many games as possible,” a league source told me. So, getting rid of players that help you win games might not be in the cards for the Cardinals. Sweat is in the second season of a four-year, $76.4 million deal he signed with Arizona at the start of free agency last year. Vacchiano’s prediction: Josh Sweat stays with Arizona Cardinals I don’t think they’re going to trade him. The Cardinals are building a nice base for the future and Sweat is signed through 2028 and young enough to be a part of that. And given his interest in getting paid more, I don’t think they’ll get an offer they can’t refuse. Williams’ prediction: Josh Sweat stays with Arizona Cardinals I think the Cardinals stand pat and keep Sweat. He’s a good fit for defensive coordinator Nick Rallis and is playing under a reasonable contract. Pass rushers can play productive football into their mid-30s, and Sweat could be part of Arizona’s rebuilding effort starting in 2027 when they likely draft a franchise quarterback. Vacchiano: The 6-foot-3, 209-pounder caught his first pass in three weeks on Sunday, and it was a 12-yard touchdown. A scout told me, “As soon as I saw that, I thought ‘Showcase!’” Almost everyone thinks the Jags are going to trade the former first-rounder, and for good reason. They’ve buried him in their offense. He’s been targeted 22 times all season. He’s only playing about 44% of Jacksonville’s plays. “It doesn’t make sense,” one NFL executive told me. “He can still run. He can still move. He’s still big. It was just two years ago that he was one of the best rookies in the league (87-1,282-10). He’s had issues with drops, but you can fix that. He’s just too talented to give up.” It does seem Liam Coen has given up, though, and Thomas could be the best wide receiver moved at the deadline. Figure the Chiefs, Bills and Steelers will be at the front of the line. The NFL executive told me to watch the 49ers as a dark horse given all the offensive injuries they’ve had. Williams: The LSU product is the second disappointing first-round receiver from the 2024 draft class to hit the trade market, following Marvin Harrison Jr., who landed with the Houston Texans. After a promising rookie season, Thomas fell out of favor with head coach Liam Coen. However, according to an NFL front office executive, the upside still remains for a young receiver with elite traits. “I loved Thomas as a rookie,” the NFL front office executive told me.  “I don’t know what has happened.” After an explosive rookie season with 87 receptions for 1,232 yards and 10 scores, Thomas has been in a steady decline in the following years. But NFL sources I spoke with believe a change of scenery could help reignite the fire in Thomas. Vacchiano’s prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. lands with Kansas City Chiefs What a waste if they don’t trade him. And they probably can get a third- or fourth-round pick, since there’s no more talented wide receiver on the market. He really looks like the kind of reclamation project Andy Reid would love. And the Chiefs need wide receiver help, too. Williams’ prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. lands with Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers, with their inability to generate explosive plays down the field, seem like a natural fit for Thomas. Rodgers could use some help on the perimeter, with receivers combining for just five touchdowns this year. Thomas also would provide another field stretcher to help open the middle of the field. Vacchiano: One of the biggest mysteries of the run-up to this trading deadline is why the winless Los Angeles Chargers haven’t been more active. “I don’t know what they’re waiting for,” one executive told me. “They should be actively listening to offers on everybody.” But the sense around the league is that they’re not — at least not yet. When or if they do, the 35-year-old Khalil Mack figures to be the most likely player to go because a lot of teams need pass rushers. “He’s not what he used to be,” a scout told me, “but if you make him a rotational pass rusher, limit his snaps, he can help.” Teams like the Bears, the Cowboys, or maybe even the Cleveland Browns make sense if they really think they have a shot in their division and the price is right. But so far, no one seems to know what that price is. “I really don’t get it,” the executive said. “If they don’t do anything at the deadline, there’s a good chance they’ll be just as bad next year, too.” Williams: I asked Mack after his team’s loss to the Rams over the weekend about the possibility of being traded, and this is what he had to say: “You’ve got to be where your feet are man, ultimately. That can be the most difficult thing when you’re dealing with a lot of outside noise and stuff. Just trying to be where your feet are at all times. That’s kind of been my thing in years past.” Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh was asked about Mack being traded this week, and said that he wants the 35-year-old edge rusher to be there and Mack wants to stay. However, Mack mulled retirement before eventually returning on a one-year, $18 million deal. And he wants an opportunity to win a Super Bowl in what could be his final season. That’s not happening with the Chargers. Vacchiano’s prediction: Khalil Mack stays with Los Angeles Chargers I think the Chargers are crazy and they’re not going to trade him. If they do, I think the Bears make the most sense. But I really get the feeling that they would rather keep their awful, winless team together as long as possible. Never mind that Mack will be a free agent in March. I’m sure the Chargers have a plan. Williams’ prediction: Khalil Mack lands with San Francisco 49ers A team like the San Francisco 49ers will make a play for Mack. Even with the potential return of Nick Bosa from a calf injury, San Francisco could use more pass-rush help and is in position to chase a Super Bowl. Also, defensive coordinator Raheem Morris has experience with plugging elite pass rushers into his system midseason. He executed a similar situation when the Los Angeles Rams traded for Von Miller and won the Super Bowl after the 2021 season. Williams: There’s been some speculation around the league that the Chargers may be willing to trade franchise quarterback QB Justin Herbert, who’s having the worst season statistically in his seven-year NFL career. But I’ve been told by a league source that’s extremely unlikely to happen. “The OC and WR coach would go first,” the league source told me. Vacchiano: I don’t believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will move him, but one player I’d keep an eye on is defensive tackle Vita Vea. I know the Giants love him. They were big-game hunting at that position, with John Harbaugh even calling Titans owner Amy Strunk to try and swing a deal for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons before he went to Chicago. The Giants called Washington about defensive tackle Daron Payne before he got hurt, too. I wouldn’t be shocked if they made an offer for Vea and were willing to deal a first-round pick. Vacchiano: I’d expect the Eagles to do some selling in the next week, especially CB Riq Woolen and TE Dallas Goedert. They told RB Saquon Barkley that he won’t be traded. “That tells you what his market was,” one source told me. Vacchiano: One possible late wild-card entry into the list of sellers: The Baltimore Ravens. They’re only 4-4 but, as one source told me, “They have to know their season is over without Lamar Jackson.” Players like CB Marlon Humphrey, DL Calais Campbell, and WR Rashod Bateman would be interesting trading chips. But they might have a bigger one. “All those teams that seem to want Jonathan Taylor,” an NFL executive said to me, “I wonder if any of them now will try to pry Derrick Henry loose.” Williams: Two veteran players who could have new homes next week are Cardinals Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker and Cleveland Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy. Baker told reporters he hopes to stay in Arizona. In his 10th NFL season, the 30-year-old University of Washington product is an eight-time Pro Bowler and hard-hitting safety who could help a team in need of defensive help in the secondary, like the Buffalo Bills. Jeudy has also shown he can still make plays all over the field, but with the Browns adding talented rookie receivers in WR K.C. Concepcion and WR Denzel Boston, there isn’t as much of a need to keep Jeudy around. “Arizona moving on from Budda Baker wouldn’t surprise me,” a league source told me. “In Cleveland, given the play of their rookie WRs, a Jerry Jeudy trade wouldn’t be surprising.”