Herd Hierarchy: Who’s The NFL’s New No. 1? Bills Slide As Falcons, Colts Rise

A week ago, Colin Cowherd said the Buffalo Bills were the best team in football. Now, they’re not even in his top five after a sloppy performance in a loss to the New England Patriots. His latest Herd Hierarchy features a new team at No. 1, a five-spot drop for Buffalo and three fresh additions to the top 10: the Dallas Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts, a team Cowherd admits he likes even if nobody else does. The Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions and Las Vegas Raiders all fell out of the rankings, and the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings were left out entirely. Here are Cowherd’s Week 4 Herd Hierarchy rankings: Cowherd’s thoughts: Listen, I don’t like their coaching staff, but I’ll put the Dallas Cowboys in there. They gave up 7.6 yards per play to Houston, but I’ll say this: Dak Prescott’s pass protection, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb. When Dak is targeting CeeDee Lamb this year, he completes 80% of his throws with a 141 passer rating. So it’s a very lopsided football team. They don’t make enough stops. They get gashed. But just based on this offense — and it is an offensive league — I’m going to put Dallas at No. 10. Cowherd’s thoughts: Nobody likes Indianapolis. I like Indianapolis. They got gashed in their opener against the Ravens, and then they faced the new offense of the Chiefs, so the stats make you think they’re a bad team. But their defense is getting better. I get Tyler Warren, I get Jonathan Taylor. Now, Daniel Jones has seven giveaways. That’s always going to be a problem. It’s why they’re not a high-end playoff team. But I like the roster with Shane Steichen and Daniel Jones starting. They’re averaging 28 points a game. I like the composition of their roster. That Ravens game is still screwing up all their stats. They look like the worst defense ever. I don’t think they are. I think they’re getting better. I have the Colts at nine. Cowherd’s thoughts: I don’t think the Falcons are a mirage. Bijan Robinson is arguably the best running back in the game. Drake London’s a top-five or six receiver. Kevin Stefanski is a brilliant offensive guy. The Falcons have had an above-average offensive line for years. They finally have a conductor in Stefanski, and Michael Penix. Now, are they too reliant on Bijan Robinson? Yeah, he’s 66% of the offense, but it’s an offensive league. The pass protection is good. You’ve got a star running back and a star wideout. Are they average defensively? Yeah, but unlike Dallas, I like the head coach. The Falcons are not a mirage. I’m happy for Penix in Atlanta. I have them at No. 8. Cowherd’s thoughts: The stats make you think they’re undefeated. They’re No. 2 in total offense, but only 18th in scoring. Some of that is, I think, Matthew Stafford can be a little streaky. He doesn’t give you a lot of juice, energy or mobility. If you get into a third-and-long, every defensive back and every edge rusher knows where he’s going to be seven steps later. They’re still the favorites to win the Super Bowl, although I have them seventh-best. The offense leads the NFL with four games of over 400 yards. Again, the stats are amazing. The defense has allowed an NFL-low five plays of over 20 yards. So what’s wrong? I think their offense can stall out because you get no mobility at quarterback… They’re one of the only teams with a pure pocket quarterback, and sometimes their offense goes through real quarter-to-quarter-and-a-half-long lulls. I have the Rams at seven. Cowherd’s thoughts: The Bills have gotten really, really sloppy, and two of their three wins have come against the 0-4 Chargers and the 0-4 Texans. So I think the cynicism is warranted. They’re averaging 32 points a game, so you think, “Oh, this is beautiful.” But do they need guardrails? Do they miss Sean McDermott’s conservative play-calling? They’ve allowed 29-plus points in three of their four games. Anybody who’s a critic of them, you’re winning right now. They’re sloppy with an offensive head coach, and the defense doesn’t do much on the back end. I have them at No. 6. Cowherd’s thoughts: I trust Ben Johnson and the Bears. I also think the Bears are playing better than their personnel defensively. And here’s the thing about the Bears: Their time of possession is absolutely insane. They’ve had the ball 53 more minutes than their opponents this season. They’re just dominating time of possession. That’s why the Bears’ defense, to me, is overachieving. It’s incredibly well-rested. It’s mostly healthy. They’ve drafted a couple of guys who are making small impacts. I think Chicago is an example of great coaching and complementary football hiding what could be an average defense if it were on the field a lot. Cowherd’s thoughts: Do I trust them in the playoffs? Well, they lead the NFL in turnover differential and are second in point differential. This is all about a young, talented quarterback finally getting his conductor, Liam Coen. I’ll say this about their defense: They’ve held opponents to 20 points or fewer in all four games, and for a warm-weather team, they’re a physical football team. Trevor Lawrence is 9-1 in his last 10 starts. He used to put the ball on the carpet more. He was a little loose. He was a little bit of what Josh Allen’s been the last couple of weeks: no guardrails. Liam Coen has provided those. Travis Hunter, by the way, is on the right side of the ball. We always said you can’t show up twice a week to a wide receiver meeting and be effective. Put him on defense. Let him return kicks. The kid’s one of the top 10 athletes in the NFL. The Jags have figured out how to use Travis Hunter. I have them at four. Cowherd’s thoughts: Like I said about Atlanta, it’s not a mirage. Kansas City is very, very good. They’re 2-0 on the road, and both sides of the ball are extremely well-coached. Now they’ve got some wide receiver injuries with Rashee Rice and (Tyquan) Thornton. So do you do something at the trade deadline? Do you bring back Tyreek Hill? You worry a little bit about that, but they’ve had wide receiver injury issues for years. They’ve gone three straight games without a sack. Do they address that? Can they at the trade deadline? Their hole is that they don’t put consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That’s why it feels like a guy like Daniel Jones can light them up. But I have them at three. Cowherd’s thoughts: They’re like last year. Turnovers, 14 penalties and 150 penalty yards against the Chargers, but they find a way to win. That’s kind of what Seattle is. They’re very young, and they can be a little mistake-prone at quarterback or with penalties. But man, turn the sound down. Depth, speed, twitchiness. They’ve scored 30-plus points in three straight games, and they allow four yards per play. It just looks different. Unlike the Texans, whose defense has vanished, Seattle’s defense looks as good as it did last year. Cowherd’s thoughts: I don’t know how long it lasts, but right now, the 49ers have 16 offensive touchdowns, with three-plus in every game. Advanced metrics say Brock Purdy’s the best quarterback ever. That may change after a trip to the Pacific Northwest. Now again, Kyle Juszczyk is banged up. You cross your fingers. It’s an older roster, but when healthy, George Kittle and Fred Warner are not only great players, they’re great leaders. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Shanahan, Purdy. This may be one of the best locker rooms in the league in terms of player leadership.