QB Notebook: Aaron Rodgers Failing Beyond Physical Ability; Relax, Baker Mayfield

Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking — from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we’ll look at how Aaron Rodgers is holding the Steelers’ offense back, check in with Drew Lock, and ask Baker Mayfield to chill out. Let’s talk quarterbacks. The Steelers’ offense has been flat-out unwatchable to start the season. Even with the aid of a Cooper Rush turnover spree in Week 1, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in points per drive, expected points added (EPA) per play, and success rate. The offense is generating explosive plays at the fourth-lowest rate, and only the Packers have been worse on third down. Through two weeks, nothing is working, and Aaron Rodgers is pointing fingers at himself … kind of. “We need to be better, and it starts with me,” the Steelers quarterback said after Sunday’s three-point performance in a loss to New England. But just when you thought he was about to take some accountability, he kept talking: “It starts with me, at like, making sure Mike [McCarthy] knows what’s working and not working, so we can call stuff that has a better chance.” That’s right, Rodgers believes the solution to Pittsburgh’s offensive woes is more play-calling input from himself. In the second half of the Patriots game, we got a little preview of what the Steelers’ offense could look like with Rodgers running the show, and it looked a lot like the offenses we’ve seen him lead in Pittsburgh and New York over the past few years. Rodgers lined up in the gun and got rid of the ball as quickly as possible. The main aim of his preferred offensive approach seems to be reducing the hits he takes. Rodgers doesn’t want to hold the football any longer than he has to, and the explosive plays McCarthy is so keen on creating require it. And that’s the primary issue with the Steelers offense: Rodgers gets worse the longer he holds the ball. That’s what separates this version of Rodgers from the back-to-back MVP we saw in Green Bay at the start of the decade. On dropbacks that last more than 2.5 seconds, Rodgers is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt through two weeks, per Next Gen Stats. That’s down from 6.8 in 2025, continuing a downward trend dating back to 2021. Rodgers wants to play a point-guard-like role but is no longer interested in creating. That, of course, would require him to hold onto the ball longer and expose himself to more hits. And maybe that’s for the best. Rodgers still has some talent left in his right arm. He’ll show it off a few times a week, but he can no longer hit tough throws with regularity, which was a hallmark of his game when he was playing at an MVP level. He has a sub-40 passer rating on throws with a completion probability under 50%, averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt, per Next Gen Stats. Back in 2021, Rodgers had a passer rating over 90 on such throws, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. Once again, we’ve seen a steady decline in his production on those plays over the past few years. Rodgers seems to think he can make up for his waning physical abilities with his advanced football IQ by getting the Steelers into good plays based on what he’s seeing pre-snap. Rodgers likes to boast about his pre-snap acumen, but plenty of examples show him making poor decisions at the line. Take this play from Sunday’s loss. McCarthy has a toss play to the running back called, and the Steelers have the right blocking matchups to make it work. But Rodgers sees Pats cornerback Christian Gonzalez playing off-coverage on DK Metcalf and decides that flipping a quick pass out to him is the better option. It was not … Had Rodgers just stuck with the original play, the Steelers might’ve picked up a nice chunk that kept them ahead of the chains. Instead, they ended up in a second-and-long with a quarterback uninterested in pushing the ball downfield. You can probably guess how that series ended. I’m not sure if there are any remedies for what ails the offense, but leaning on Rodgers even more than they already have won’t fix anything. Like a Rodgers dropback, the sooner this era of Steelers football ends, the better. After three rough halves to start the season, the Broncos’ offense flipped a switch in their second-half comeback over the Jaguars. Whether it was first-year offensive coordinator Davis Webb or Sean Payton acting as a shadow play-caller, someone on Denver’s staff came up with the idea to get Bo Nix on the move, and it seemed to unlock something in the third-year passer. Nix connected on 4 of 5 passes made on the run and averaged over 11 yards per attempt in the second half, per Next Gen Stats. That doesn’t include this 49-yard dime to Jaylen Waddle, which led to Denver’s first points in the second quarter. Nix isn’t known for his downfield passing prowess, but when he gets outside of the pocket, that part of his game seems to open up. Nix has really struggled when throwing to the intermediate parts of the field, which is awfully important for sustaining an effective NFL passing game. He’s completed just 46% of his attempts into that range when throwing from the pocket, per Next Gen Stats. But put Nix on the move, and his completion percentage on intermediate throws jumps to 55%. He’s one of the rare quarterbacks who’s more accurate when throwing on the run. That’s more of an indictment of Nix’s ability to throw from a stationary position than anything else. His production when throwing on the run is around league average. It’s less of a superpower and more of a crutch — a crutch the Broncos coaching staff has leaned on heavily. Since he entered the league in 2024, Nix has thrown for more passing yards on the run than any quarterback in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. I’m not sure Payton and Webb can squeeze any more juice out of Nix’s mobility than they already have. And calling designed rollouts can limit the passing game, as it usually cuts the field in half for the offense. Nix must improve his play from the pocket if this offense is going to take the next step and get the most out of a stacked supporting cast. The 26-year-old did offer some glimmers of hope against Jacksonville. This was a throw Nix has rarely made with confidence throughout his career. And there were a few other examples of Nix ripping a throw into a tight zone window with confidence and anticipation in Sunday’s game. That’s a good sign. As Nix gets more comfortable targeting the middle of the field, we should see even more of those flashes; but until he cleans up his footwork in the pocket, accuracy will be a limiting factor, and Denver’s coaching staff will have to find more creative ways to get him moving. The ink is barely dry on the three-year, $165 million extension Baker Mayfield signed with the Buccaneers right before the season, but I’m wondering if the last two weeks have the front office already looking for an off-ramp. General manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles said a lot of nice things about their quarterback throughout the somewhat contentious negotiations, but it wasn’t hard to read between the lines to figure out where their concerns lay. “The main thing is not turning the ball over and sometimes checking it down,” Bowles said in the offseason. “Understanding when he gets out of the pocket — he makes some great scrambles — but understanding how to get down and putting himself out of harm’s way.” We’re two games into Mayfield’s new contract, and not much has changed. He’s tied for the league lead in “turnover-worthy plays” (per Pro Football Focus), and we’ve already seen a handful of daring scrambles that make it look like Mayfield has been possessed by the spirit of Cam Skattebo. This play against the Bengals was a two-for, with Mayfield taking an unnecessary hit and coughing up the ball in the red zone. Hopefully, someone on the Bucs coaching staff talked with Mayfield after this play in the loss to the Browns, where he decided that taking a defender head-on was a better option than running out of bounds or throwing the ball away. Look, when Mayfield was on heavily discounted deals, those displays of toughness were admirable. Now that he’s making top-of-the-league money, they’re unacceptable. For better or worse, the Bucs are locked into the Baker Mayfield business for the next three seasons. In 2029, the team can get out of the deal without taking on a massive cap penalty. If his judgment doesn’t improve—whether it’s protecting himself or the football—that will feel like a long wait. I’ll give Drew Lock this: he’s a lot of fun to watch. Watch him whip a throw over the middle of the field, and you can see why the Broncos once viewed him as their quarterback of the future. If he can keep this up while Sam Darnold works his way back from a hip injury, another team may view him in the same light next offseason. My money’s on the Falcons. I’m still not a believer after Sunday’s impressive showing. Seattle’s offensive line kept him in clean pockets all day, and we still saw glimpses of the inaccuracy and shoddy footwork that sabotaged Lock’s stint in Denver. There are far better ways to spend $30 million. You have to watch this one from the end zone angle to fully appreciate the play Joe Burrow makes here. With pressure bearing down on him, Burrow throws a no-look pass that dekes the defender in coverage and opens up the window to hit Tee Higgins and move the chains on third down. The play requires pocket presence, accuracy, anticipation, and a little bit of creativity. Look, I’m not the biggest fan of Michael Penix Jr.’s game, but I am thankful that he’s returning for Week 3. I couldn’t do another week of Cooper Rush, who’s still making rookie mistakes in his 10th year. This pick was a high school-level blunder. Devin Lloyd barely moves on the play, and Rush throws it directly to him. To make matters worse, Rush badly whiffs on a tackle and nearly takes his teammate out in the process.