AFC East Predictions: Can The Bills Regain Their Throne Over The Patriots?

Almost everyone has a good feeling who’ll finish first and second in the AFC East in 2026, but what will the order of those two teams look like? The Buffalo Bills are looking to get back to the top of the division behind Josh Allen after finishing behind New England last year. The Patriots enter with high expectations after making the Super Bowl last season while reloading on offense behind a developing core. With opening night of the NFL season just over a week away, the “First Things First” panel took a look at the AFC East, projecting how the standings will unfold for the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins. All three panelists arrived at a unanimous consensus for the final order of finish. Nick Wright’s AFC East Prediction Nick Wright picked the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East with an 11-6 record, placing the New England Patriots second at 10-7, the New York Jets third at 4-13, and the Miami Dolphins fourth at 3-14. Wright trusts Buffalo’s foundational offensive pieces to carry them despite defensive secondary questions. “Josh Allen healthy gives you a 10-win floor,” Wright said. “There’s other players in the Bills who are pretty good too. James Cook won a rushing title and is going to go top 10 in your fantasy draft. They have an awesome offensive line, and I think there’s a chance this is the year Dalton Kincaid finally lives up to some of his draft status.” Despite a tough early schedule for New England, Wright believes head coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye will push the Patriots into the postseason. “Three of their first four games at Seattle, at Jacksonville, at Buffalo. I don’t love that. I didn’t love how Drake Maye finished the season. However, I think Mike Vrabel is an excellent coach,” Wright said. “Overall, I do believe in Drake Maye, and I believe in young players progressing, even if it’s not linear. I believe they go 10 and seven, and I believe they make the postseason.” Wright did not have the same outlook toward Miami’s season. “They have more money and more dead cap money than any team in the league. Their four highest-paid players play for someone else. They might have the worst wide receiver core in the history of the league,” Wright said. Chris Broussard’s AFC East Prediction Chris Broussard agreed with the order of Wright’s, placing Buffalo in first place, New England in second, New York in third, and Miami in fourth, though he projected the Patriots to miss the postseason. Broussard pointed to their new head coach and a key addition at receiver as reasons Buffalo could get back to the top of the division. “I love the addition of D.J. Moore at receiver. Look, Sean McDermott was a great defensive mind. I think Jim Leonhard is going to bring some new stuff. They’re going to be doing some more modern stuff, and I think he’s going to have that defense clicking,” Broussard said. When evaluating New England’s record, Broussard cautioned against high postseason expectations. “I got three words for you: Super Bowl hangover. There’s no playoff stamp there. They play 11 teams that last year had a winning record, and one of the teams that didn’t have a winning record is the Chiefs,” Broussard said. Danny Parkins’ AFC East Prediction Danny Parkins mirrored the consensus, projecting the Buffalo Bills at the top of the division ahead of the New England Patriots with a playoff berth, New York Jets in third, and Miami Dolphins in fourth. Parkins expects immediate high-volume production from Buffalo’s new primary target. “D.J. Moore is going to be excellent for them. He had 140 targets last year for the Bears. He’s healthy. He’s going to be Josh Allen’s No. 1. I think he’s performed consistently as a true number one with way less quarterback talent, including in Chicago two years ago,” Parkins said. Parkins viewed New England as a dangerous playoff team despite facing a tougher schedule. “They are the most obvious better team, worse record candidate that I’ve seen in the last decade in the NFL. They’re really good. It’s just a really solid football team, but they’re not taking anyone by surprise,” Parkins said. “I still think they can be an 11-win team, but a better team, worse record, still very, very dangerous.” Parkins also detailed why Miami sits at the bottom of the divisional hierarchy. “We have not seen a team carry this much dead cap. It’s the worst wide receiver pass catcher group in the history of football. If your best player is a running back, but you’re never going to be leading, so you’re not going to be able to run the ball in the second half with De’Von Achane, that’s a problem,” Parkins said.