Which Teams Need To Win The Super Bowl? Defining Success For All 32 Teams In 2026

Success is all relative in the NFL, and it means different things for each of the 32 teams. Every win and loss is framed in the context of the original expectations for your season. You can go 11-6 and disappoint, like the Philadelphia Eagles last season. Or you can just go 6-11 and take a step forward as a franchise, just as the New Orleans Saints did this past year. So, which teams can that thinking apply to for the 2026 season? Let’s define success for all 32 teams, from the ones battling for the No. 1 overall pick to the franchises who should be content with nothing less than a championship as we place them in different tiers. Miss The Playoffs, But Just Win, Baby 2025 record: 3-14Projected win total: 3.5 wins At the bottom of the toughest division in the league, Arizona is resetting with new coach Mike LaFleur. Jacoby Brissett is a placeholder quarterback for 2026, and rookie Carson Beck should get a look. But realistically, the Cardinals are picking in the top five and taking a quarterback. No team has more 2027 cap space than Arizona, so the goal is to create a winning culture so you don’t have to overpay for the high-dollar free agents you’ll bring in. Long-term success for these bottom-tier teams means securing a potential franchise QB, so you don’t want to win so much you fall out of contention for a top-three quarterback in this talented draft class. 2025 record: 7-10Projected win total: 4.5 wins The Dolphins have a new coach in Jeff Hafley and one of the youngest rosters in the league. They’ll want to find out if Malik Willis is good enough in a full season as a starter to avoid using a high 2027 first-rounder on a quarterback. There’s a void at receiver, so if you can land Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith as a No. 1 target for Willis, that’s great. But he might be the first non-QB off the board, so even six wins could take him off the board. If you can stay ahead of the Jets and avoid the AFC East cellar, that’s probably the bare minimum as you forge a new identity around a few core players. 2025 record: 5-12Projected win total: 5.5 wins It seems unlikely that Cleveland’s 2027 quarterback is on the current roster, so this year is about moving on from Deshaun Watson and beginning to get free of that albatross of a contract. Dead money from that deal will limit how active the Browns can be in free agency in 2027, so they need to identify the existing talent they can build around, like edge rusher Jared Verse, running back Quinshon Judkins, linebacker Carson Schwesinger, defensive tackle Mason Graham and rookie receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. If the Browns struggle to win games with a bad quarterback this season, is first-year head coach Todd Monken a lock to make it to 2027? 2025 record: 3-14Projected win total: 5.5 wins Like the Cardinals, the Jets have a stopgap quarterback in Geno Smith, but especially with a bonus first-round pick from the Colts, the priority will be finding a quarterback high in the 2027 draft. Can Aaron Glenn show enough progress to keep his job and be the coach for that rookie QB? This is a team with three first-round rookies, so there’s young talent to build around. They’re not going to catch the Bills or Patriots this season, but they can set themselves up to challenge for a playoff berth in 2027. They face the Cardinals, Browns, Raiders, Titans and Dolphins (twice), so it wouldn’t be hard to get to seven or eight wins and the cusp of wild-card contention this year. 2025 record: 3-14Projected win total: 5.5 Another young team stuck in a division with perhaps three playoff teams, the Raiders could make real improvement and still not see it in the standings in 2026. How quickly do they turn the team over to rookie Fernando Mendoza? Unless they’re really winning with Kirk Cousins, there’s little reason not to hand him the keys and give him on-the-job development this season. Do the Raiders keep Maxx Crosby or deal him for draft assets once he shows he’s healthy? They’ll play a ton of rookies on defense and might struggle with their youth, but the eye is on the future with Klint Kubiak, Mendoza and running back Ashton Jeanty. Find your new identity this year, win in 2027. Get That Young QB A Taste Of Meaningful Football 2025 record: 3-14Projected win total: 6.5 You could almost include the Titans in the bottom tier. But putting Robert Saleh in charge, giving Cam Ward a No. 1 receiver in rookie Carnell Tate and an easy schedule put Tennessee a smidge higher. How much better can Ward be with Brian Daboll at offensive coordinator? He had 15 touchdown passes as a rookie. Can he get to 25? Not many quarterbacks threw 10 more touchdowns from rookie to Year 2 in recent years, but Drake Maye was plus-16 and Trevor Lawrence was plus-13. Just catching the Colts and getting out of the AFC South cellar would be a good first step. Tennessee was 28th in scoring defense, so Saleh and at least five new starters on that side will get them closer to the middle of the pack. 2025 record: 4-13Projected win total:7.5 How big a step can the Giants take with John Harbaugh? That defensive front — Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Arvell Reese — is talented enough that they might get past the loss of Dexter Lawrence in the middle. Can Jaxson Dart stay healthy and get a full year of Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers? The first step is finishing ahead of the Commanders, but there’s a chance the Giants can hang with the Eagles and Cowboys and contend for a return to the playoffs. Watch what they do in Weeks 3-6, facing Tennessee, Arizona, Washington and New Orleans, with three of those at home. Harbaugh took Baltimore from 5-11 to 11-5 and two playoff wins in his first season there. 2025 record: 5-12Projected win total: 7.5 To be clear, Jayden Daniels got a big taste of the playoffs as a rookie. But Washington took a major slide last year, dropping from 12-5 to 5-12, and losing Daniels for 10 games was only part of the problem. Dan Quinn’s defense dropped to 27th in the league. Adding rookie linebacker Sonny Styles could spark the Commanders to greater things, and they went 3-3 in division last year, so they must make a significant improvement in non-division games to keep Quinn around. Opening at Dallas, at Philadelphia and hosting Seattle, they’ll do well not to open 0-3. Just Win The NFC South 2025 record: 8-9Projected win total: 6.5 The division is wide-open enough that all four teams should have confidence they have a shot at winning. Atlanta took a major 1-2 gut punch at edge rusher with Jalon Walker’s season-ending injury and James Pearce’s eight-game suspension, so they could be in trouble before they get the latter back. With no clear answer at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski’s priority will be finding out if either Michael Penix or Tua Tagovailoa is the long-term solution there. The offensive core — Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts — is locked up, but that only means so much if they don’t know who their quarterback is. The defense, especially until Pearce returns, is a major question mark. 2025 record: 6-11Projected win total:7.5 We could have the Saints in the last group for sure, and much of their success will hinge on how Tyler Shough can play over a full season after going 4-1 at the end of a nine-game rookie sample. Kellen Moore has new weapons in running back Travis Etienne and rookie Jordyn Tyson, who will miss the start of the season with injury. The Saints open at Detroit and at Baltimore, so beating the Raiders in Week 3 is a must, or they’re digging a big hole early. Four division games in the final five weeks means if they can just hang around, another big finish would be huge for Moore’s second season. 2025 record: 8-9Projected win total: 7.5 The Panthers have gone from two to five to eight wins in the last three years, but continuing that trend won’t be easy with a first-place schedule and some tough training camp injuries. Can Bryce Young improve on last year’s 23-touchdown emergence? He’s back and has his fifth-year option for 2027, but he’s still working to show he’s worth a lucrative extension. If Carolina can repeat as division champs, head coach Dave Canales will deserve a lot of praise, but the outside expectations are a regression of some form. Is this the team that swept the Falcons last year or the one that got swept by the Saints? I wouldn’t want to be the coach who finishes last in the league’s worst division. 2025 record: 8-9Projected win total: 8.5 The Buccaneers are the preseason favorites to take the division they won four straight years from 2021-24, and that starts with avoiding the injuries that scuttled the second half of last season. So much is in flux here — win the South, you’re looking at a big Baker Mayfield extension. But fail to do so, and you could see Todd Bowles fired, which could lead to a new coach who may want a new quarterback. Bowles has a chance to get his defense back to a top-10 unit, with rookies like Rueben Bain and Josiah Trotter leading the way. Winning this division likely means hosting the lesser of the Rams or Seahawks, where you might be an underdog at home in wild-card weekend. Make It To The Playoffs, At Least 2025 record: 10-7Projected win total: 8.5 If the Steelers miss the playoffs, the entirety of Aaron Rodgers’ post-Packers years is rough, right? If he finishes his career with no playoff wins in his final six years, it’s not the fade that anyone expected. If you’re new head coach Mike McCarthy, you really don’t want to end a streak of 22 straight Steelers seasons without a losing record. The gripe was them not winning in the playoffs — six straight losses there — but it’s another problem to miss the postseason entirely. If you’re not winning, is there a way to give rookie Drew Allar a look, or do you just pivot to drafting a quarterback in 2027 regardless? 2025 record: 9-8Projected win total: 8.5 The Vikings went 14-3 in 2024, and while quarterback wasn’t the only limiting factor last year, if they get closer to their 35 touchdown passes in 2024, that’ll go a long way toward returning to the playoffs. Can Kyler Murray re-establish himself, and if he does, will the Vikings let another quarterback go or pay him to stay? Does he get a Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold deal in the $35 million a year range or something more? Justin Jefferson had two touchdown catches in the entire 2025 season, and it seems impossible for him to come close to repeating that. Everyone pencils in three NFC North teams for the playoffs, so the Vikings just need to make sure they’re among them. 2025 record: 8-9Projected win total: 7.5 Shane Steichen has missed the playoffs in each of his first three seasons as head coach, but he’s also been no worse than 8-9 in any of them. If they fall short again, could Steichen or general manager Chris Ballard be in trouble? If Daniel Jones and Sauce Gardner are healthy all year, that takes away two excuses from last season. Can receiver Alec Pierce take the next step after getting paid $28 million a year? It’s hard to see the AFC South getting three playoff teams, so the Colts getting in means catching either the Texans or Jaguars, and they went 0-4 against those two as part of seven straight losses to end last season. 2025 record: 6-11Projected win total: 10.5 If you’d said three years ago that Joe Burrow and Cincinnati would miss the playoffs three years in a row, you’d sound crazy. The Bengals’ success starts with a healthy Burrow, but it’s also going to require major improvement on defense. Getting Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is a huge step toward that, but you’ll know quickly if they’re better, opening the year with the Bucs, Texans, Steelers and Jaguars. Go 1-3 or worse in those four and they might never get back on course. If the Bengals missed the playoffs and moved on from Zac Taylor, he’d be one of the first head coaches hired, much like Kevin Stefanski this past year. 2025 record: 7-9-1Projected win total: 9.5 The Cowboys are just like the Bengals: prolific quarterback, two elite receivers, but a porous defense giving up close to 30 points per game. They look to have addressed that side, from new coordinator Christian Parker to rookie safety Caleb Downs and likely five more new starters on defense. Dallas hasn’t missed the playoffs in three straight years since 2010-13, so that’s something to avoid. If the Cowboys miss the playoffs, does star receiver George Pickens sign somewhere else? Can they really afford to pay a second receiver that much either way? With one playoff win in the last seven seasons, you could easily move the Cowboys up to the next tier. 2025 record: 9-8Projected win total: 10.5 Somebody in the NFC North is going to disappoint and miss the playoffs, and everyone expects the Lions to get back to their dominant level of making the NFC title game in 2023 and going 15-2 in 2024. That means staying healthy on defense and having new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing improve on a unit that still ranked fourth in scoring in a down year last year. Does Penei Sewell take well at left tackle and does rookie Blake Miller handle himself at right tackle? This could easily be a team winning a playoff game or two, but in a tough division, we’ll start any measure of success with just getting back into the postseason. Win At Least One Playoff Game 2025 record: 12-5Projected win total: 9.5 Third-place teams don’t get much better than last year’s 49ers, and the same might be true in 2026, with San Francisco seen as a top-10 team that’s also way behind the Rams and Seahawks in expectations. If they were perpetually injured last year, they’re seen as old this season, so Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, George Kittle and Trent Williams need to defy their ages to lead Kyle Shanahan’s team to any deep playoff run. Shanahan keeps losing quality defensive coordinators, so it’s on Raheem Morris to keep that side playing at a high level. Can last year’s first-rounder Mykel Williams get healthy and provide a young spark for the 49ers defense? 2025 record: 13-4Projected win total: 8.5 First-year head coach Liam Coen was one of last year’s biggest surprises, finishing the year with eight straight wins before a close loss to the Bills in the playoffs. They lost more than they added in the offseason, counting on their depth to step up at key positions. Can Travis Hunter be the impact player — on at least one side of the ball — they traded up to No. 2 to get last year? Jacksonville hasn’t made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 1999, but it’d do well to find a way to improve on last year and win at least one game once it’s in. 2025 record: 6-11Projected win total: 10.5 Are they really back? Five Super Bowls — and three championships — in seven years sets the bar extremely high, so even with Patrick Mahomes returning from a major injury, fans expect the Chiefs to be a playoff team and a playoff threat again. The AFC West is three-wide with intrigue, with the Broncos as last year’s top seed in the AFC and the Chargers expected to challenge as well. The Chiefs went 0-4 against those two, so you need a split at least to really get back. Monday night in Week 1, hosting the Broncos, will set one team as the team to beat in the division. Look for one Super Bowl MVP to help another out, with Kenneth Walker joining the K.C. backfield. 2025 record: 11-6Projected win total: 10.5 There’s little middle ground for head coach Nick Sirianni, either making the Super Bowl or losing in his first playoff game five years in a row. It’s hard to imagine a coach two years removed from a championship being in jeopardy, but the inconsistency is glaring. For the record, we have 14 teams listed as “need to win a playoff game” or better, so at best only half of those are going to reach that goal. A new offensive coordinator every year is a problem, so Sean Mannion needs to get regular-season Jalen Hurts to a higher level of production without A.J. Brown out there. Sirianni doesn’t need a Super Bowl. He just needs to stay in the playoffs longer than a weekend. 2025 record: 9-7-1Projected win total: 9.5 The Packers have made the playoffs six times in seven years under head coach Matt LaFleur, but they have only one playoff win in the last five years, matching the fewest in any five years since 1988-92. They’ll start the year without Micah Parsons, but he should be a major factor in the playoffs, provided they get there. Jordan Love has gone from 32 passing touchdowns to 25 to 23 in his three years as starter, and he lost two receivers in the offseason without much to replace them. Getting tight end Tucker Kraft back healthy helps, but Green Bay needs to start by making sure they’re not the one NFC North team left out of the postseason fun. 2025 record: 11-6Projected win total: 9.5 Repeating as NFC North champs won’t be easy with a first-place schedule that has the Bears facing last year’s Super Bowl teams in back-to-back weeks, then going to Buffalo the week before Christmas. The Bears won the North last year despite going 2-4 in division games, so that will have to improve if they want another home playoff game. Can the Bears possibly pull off as many late-game comebacks as they did behind Caleb Williams last year? Their emergence in Ben Johnson’s first year sets the bar high for 2026. Whether as a division winner or a wild card team, they need to advance to the division round to show they haven’t taken any kind of step back. 2025 record: 11-6Projected win total: 9.5 This has to be the year Justin Herbert gets his first playoff win, right? He’s not only 0-3, but he’s lost the last two by a combined 33 points. No new coordinator has more buzz than Mike McDaniel, though it’s fair to wonder if the Chargers take a step back on defense with Jesse Minter gone to the Ravens. A healthy offensive line is a huge boost here, and second-year back Omarion Hampton could be a surprise star if he stays healthy. I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl this spring, so they need to win a playoff game or two just to make that pick not look embarrassing. Reach The AFC Championship Game 2025 record: 12-5Projected win total: 9.5 Defense wins championships, right? Houston was dominant at the end of last season, winning nine straight, but couldn’t stop New England in the divisional round. The Texans had 10-plus wins four times in their first 21 years, and now have done it three times in three seasons under Demeco Ryans. They’ve won exactly one playoff game in each of those seasons, but have a chance now to push a step farther in the playoffs. The defense will be elite, but can a revamped offensive line help get C.J. Stroud back to his rookie-year greatness? If he can do that, he’ll have a $200 million contract coming his way, and a deep playoff run would make that even bigger. 2025 record: 8-9Projected win total: 11.5 With a first-year head coach in Jesse Minter, coming off a losing record and with Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum gone to the Raiders, the Ravens still have very high expectations. Minter should improve an already-strong defense, as will the healthy return of defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and the addition of edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. Does Derrick Henry have another 1,500-yard season in his 32-year-old body? The last time the Ravens won more than one playoff game in a season was 2012, but with a perennial MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson, they need to do that this season to avoid the stigma of a good team that can’t play its best football in January. 2025 record: 14-3Projected win total: 10.5 The defending AFC champs aren’t even favored to win their division, despite acquiring talented new weapons for Drake Maye to throw to after earning MVP runner-up honors last season. Mike Vrabel has had an offseason of headlines for the wrong reasons, and if the Patriots don’t come out of the gate strong — three of their first four are at Seattle, at Jacksonville, at Buffalo — there will be questions of whether the distraction impacted players. The Patriots scored just 23 points total in their last two playoff games, so an improved offense will help Vrabel as he tries to make another deep postseason push in his second year in New England. Super Bowl Or Bust 2025 record: 12-5Projected win total: 10.5 What better way to break in a new stadium than by hosting and winning the AFC Championship Game? The Bills have five home playoff wins in the last five years, and it’s a much easier path to a Super Bowl if they go through their new home. They’ll try to do this with a first-year head coach in newly promoted Joe Brady, with Jim Leonhard on board to run the defense. Is receiver D.J. Moore the answer to unlocking another level of Josh Allen? His passing touchdowns in the last six years are 37-36-35-29-28-25, but we’ll say that downward trend ends and he’s back at 30-plus touchdown passes. For his legacy, he needs to get Buffalo back to a Super Bowl, and obviously a win there would be historic for the franchise. 2025 record: 14-3Projected win total: 9.5 The Broncos had the AFC’s top seed last year and hosted the conference championship, but Bo Nix’s injury absence puts an asterisk on their loss to the Patriots. Can he stay healthy and change that outcome in 2026? Adding wide receiver Jaylen Waddle will give their passing game a jolt, though he literally might be the only newcomer in a starting role. Denver has the best offensive line in the game, and the run game will be improved with a healthy J.K. Dobbins and fourth-round rookie Jonah Coleman. Denver’s good enough that success won’t be measured until well into the playoffs. Can Bo Nix make the big leap that Drake Maye made a year ago? 2025 record: 14-3Projected win total: 10.5 Few saw the Seahawks’ breakout coming a year ago, and head coach Mike Macdonald’s team took enough losses in free agency that they’re underdogs in their own division. The Seahawks are the defending champs, but are lurking in the Rams’ shadow as the season begins. Can quarterback Sam Darnold find the same success with Klint Kubiak gone to the Raiders and unheralded Brian Fleury taking over the offense? The challenge from within the division is real — they’ll face the Rams twice in the final three weeks of the season, the first on Christmas in Seattle, and the winner from those two games will be seen as the team to beat in the NFC playoffs. 2025 record: 12-5Projected win total: 11.5 Once they traded for Myles Garrett, the Rams were the team to beat for the Super Bowl, and that’s before you even talk about the chance their addition of Aaron Donald on Sunday. You have an MVP at quarterback in Matthew Stafford — 46 touchdown passes against only eight interceptions last year — and don’t forget corner Trent McDuffie, acquired from the Chiefs for a first-round pick. There’s a chance the Rams could play the entire playoffs on their home field, setting up a Super Bowl win at home for the second time in six seasons. More than any other team in the league, if they don’t hoist a trophy at the end of this season, it’s a disappointment.