NFL Offseason Check-in: What Happened to C.J. Stroud and What Should the Texans Do?

The NFL has always been a quarterback-driven league where any signal caller with a pulse and a few highlight plays can command a hefty payday on the open market. The league-wide desperation has forced team builders to overpay for QB1 prospects with unimpressive résumés, ranking them as the highest-paid players on their teams. With an unproven quarterback such as Malik Willis inking a three-year, $67.5 million deal with six career starts to his name, the consternation over C.J. Stroud’s impending contract extension with the Houston Texans is laughable. While the fourth-year pro is coming off a disappointing postseason, in which he became the first quarterback in NFL history to record five interceptions and five fumbles in a single playoff run, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year has also been brilliant at times while amassing 10,876 passing yards, 62 touchdowns (with just 25 interceptions) and 28 wins over his 46 starts. Additionally, Stroud has won at least one playoff game in each of his three seasons, and he has the fourth-most pass yards (1,438) and eighth-most touchdowns (8) in the postseason since 2023. Though the Texans’ stellar defense has played a significant role in the club’s postseason success, Stroud’s contributions to the team’s revival make it hard to dismiss his contract wishes when sitting down at the negotiating table. If quarterbacks are judged by their ability to win, the Texans’ regular-season and postseason success with Stroud at the helm puts him in a position to command $40 million-plus annually. In fact, the recent contracts signed by Trevor Lawrence (five-year, $275 million), Jordan Love (four-year, $220 million) and Brock Purdy (five-year, $265 million) make it nearly impossible to keep Stroud out of the “$50 Million Club,” as a fellow promising quarterback who has shown elite flashes as the offensive leader of a perennial playoff contender. Help Stroud Help Himself Before the pearl-clutching begins in H-Town over the blockbuster contract their franchise quarterback will likely sign in a future offseason, skeptics must consider the circumstances impacting his play over the past two seasons. The former Pro Bowler is working with his second offensive coordinator, while playing with a leaky offensive line that has not matched the physicality and violence of the Texans’ dominant defense. The lack of a consistent running game powered by an elite RB1 has put an inordinate amount of pressure on Stroud to carry the Texans, utilizing a pass-heavy approach without the perimeter weaponry to support the game plan. While the 6-foot-4 Nico Collins has produced like a top-10 receiver when healthy, he’s missed 10 games over the past three seasons, including Houston’s 2026 playoff loss, often leaving Stroud without a serviceable go-to target. Despite general manager Nick Caserio’s previous efforts to add playmakers via free agency (Stefon Diggs), trade (Christian Kirk) and the draft (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel), those complementary receivers have not provided a consistent spark to the passing game. Tank Dell exhibited electric playmaking ability through his first 25 games, but a gruesome knee injury has kept the diminutive pass-catcher off the field for a season-plus. Although those challenging circumstances have impacted Stroud’s play, the dramatic decline in his production and performance since his rookie season takes a top-of-the-market deal out of the equation. His passing yards, yards per attempt and passer rating are down from his record-breaking 2023 campaign, and his on-field hesitancy has shown up in pivotal moments. With his most recent playoff failures against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots fresh in mind, Stroud’s ability to deliver under pressure is a major concern, particularly when factoring in his “closing” skills (only seven game-winning drives and two fourth-quarter comebacks) on a defensive-led team. The best quarterbacks can seamlessly transition from caretaker to playmaker depending on the game situation or circumstance, but questions persist regarding Stroud’s game based on the Texans’ defensive dominance and his modest production since a historic run at the beginning of his career. Table Negotiations Till Next Year In 2023, he became just the fifth rookie to post a 4,000-yard season and the first to have at least 900 yards, four passing touchdowns and zero interceptions over his first three career starts. Stroud recorded six 300-yard passing games that season, but he’s had only three such games since. Although numbers do not fully tell a quarterback’s story, Stroud’s regression and the team’s success make it harder to find a deal that is a “win-win” for Houston and its franchise quarterback. From the Texans’ perspective, they have routinely rewarded their best players after they established themselves as elite players. Cornerback Derek Stingley (three-year, $90 million), defensive end Danielle Hunter (one-year, $40 million extension after recently signing a two-year $49 million deal in 2024) and linebackers Will Anderson Jr. (three-year, $150 million) and Azeez Al-Shaair (three-year, $54 million) recently inked blockbuster deals after earning All-Pro or Pro Bowl honors. The meritocracy that permeates the Texans’ locker room is rewarded by the front office with hefty contracts that align compensation with production. While the NFL’s tendency to reward the next starting-caliber quarterback who hits the market with a megadeal that exceeds their on-field production, the Texans should slow-play the Stroud negotiation by using this year and potentially the fifth-year option season to evaluate their franchise quarterback. Considering the option is currently valued at $25.9 million, the Texans are getting their QB1 at a team-friendly number that lets them monitor his progress without overpaying for his inconsistent production. Although the Texans are bypassing a chance to sign Stroud when his stock is at an all-time low, the decision to prioritize the team’s blue-collar culture by making the young quarterback prove his worth raises the standards and expectations within the locker room. Most importantly, it prevents the Texans from committing to an inconsistent quarterback on a hefty contract, which could lead to immediate buyer’s remorse and a brutal rebuild (see: Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins). That said, the market will continue to rise while the Texans take a “wait-and-see” approach with Stroud. The fourth-year pro could see his contract balloon to astronomical levels if he regains his Pro Bowl form and leads the team on a deep playoff run. Considering how his cross-state rival, Dak Prescott, has parlayed “wait-and-see” negotiations into multiple blockbuster deals, the Texans’ reluctance to seriously engage in contract discussions could lead to a substantial raise that makes the delayed gratification worth the wait for the once-rising star.