Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I\u2019ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking \u2014 from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we’ll evaluate J.J. McCarthy’s first start for the Giants, figure out what’s behind Daniel Jones’ regression, and look at a defensive trend that’s giving (most) passers across the league fits. Let\u2019s talk quarterbacks. The 2024 first-round pick is certainly making the most of this opportunity to start for the Giants, but let\u2019s throttle back the hot takes before we anoint McCarthy as the next Sam Darnold or tar and feather his former coach, Kevin O\u2019Connell, for not getting more out of him. Sunday\u2019s game against the Texans was arguably the best of his career against a quality defense \u2014 so that 2025 game against the Cowboys defense doesn\u2019t qualify \u2014 and it produced the most throwing highlights. McCarthy hit Malik Nabers with a perfectly placed back-shoulder ball on a fade route from the slot. He lined up with Nabers again on a tight-window corner route. He hit Malachi Fields on a sail route between two defenders. Those are undoubtedly good throws, but they’re the kind of throws we\u2019ve already seen McCarthy make in Minnesota. McCarthy\u2019s always been willing to make those highly difficult throws to the perimeter; whether he can do it consistently is another matter. McCarthy throws with enough velocity to pull them off, but it takes a lot of effort. Here he nearly throws himself out of his shoes trying to muscle a ball to the sideline. Here\u2019s another max-effort throw that ends up looking like a sinking fastball the catcher has to dig out. When McCarthy consistently hits these deep perimeter throws, he looks like a starting-level quarterback. But these aren\u2019t high-probability throws \u2014 not even for quarterbacks with elite arm talent. McCarthy had the lowest dropback success rate of any starter in Week 7, which illustrates how volatile a passing attack built around deep throws can be. And McCarthy still doesn\u2019t have other pitches to go to when he can’t connect. He lacks the precision to consistently work underneath and the touch to throw over the middle. McCarthy\u2019s biggest issue, which the Vikings tried desperately to fix, is his desire to throw every ball as hard as he possibly can. This can make short passes harder to catch than they need to be. If McCarthy can keep hitting deep, perimeter passes consistently, I\u2019d expect this hot start to turn into a full-on breakout season. He\u2019s off to a good start, hitting 8 of 13 attempts over 10 air yards and aimed outside the numbers, but it\u2019ll take a much bigger sample to prove he can do it repeatedly. I\u2019ll buy into the redemption narrative if this continues, or if McCarthy shows he can stay effective when those deep throws aren\u2019t connecting. With the Colts firing long-time general manager Chris Ballard and trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for pennies on the dollar, Indianapolis could be in the middle of a deadline fire sale. If this team is waving the white flag on the 2026 season, I\u2019ve got a suggestion: bench Daniel Jones and see what the young backups, Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard, can do. Head coach Shane Steichen says he\u2019s not considering benching Jones after he threw away a winnable game against the Vikings on Sunday. His game-ending interception was his seventh of the season, and the performance dragged his QBR to 40.3, 31st in the league. That\u2019s lower than his 2024 QBR, when the Giants cut him midseason. The 2026 version of Jones looks a lot like the quarterback who flamed out in New York two seasons ago. And that\u2019s why it\u2019s probably a good time for Indianapolis to sit him. Jones doesn\u2019t look fully healthy, which makes sense considering that he\u2019s less than a year removed from tearing an Achilles. Watching Jones play in 2026 feels a lot like watching Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, when the veteran quarterback was coming off the same injury. He doesn\u2019t look very mobile\u2014which matters more for Jones than it did for Cousins\u2014and looks uncomfortable when throwing on the move. The numbers back that up, too. Jones is averaging 1.3 yards per attempt when throwing on the run, per Next Gen Stats. That\u2019s not even a full Kyler Murray worth of yards! In 2025, he averaged 7.7 yards per throw on the move. His completion percentage has dropped from 73% in 2025 to 25% this season. His success rate has plummeted from 50% to 13%. Jones\u2019 inability to complete passes on the move is the main difference between his performance this season and what the Colts saw in 2025. Last season, the passing game was built around Jones\u2019 ability to move. The Colts used him on bootlegs and nakeds to move the pocket and simplify his reads. Those plays haven\u2019t been nearly as effective in 2026, and it\u2019s had a domino effect on the rest of the offense. Jones hasn\u2019t been accurate downfield, and he\u2019s not a quick processor who can carve up defenses with short passes. Jones has always needed an offense built around his skill set to succeed. I\u2019m not sure that offense exists with Jones in his current form. I doubt Richardson or Leonard would improve the Colts offense, but sitting Jones would protect him from further injury and prevent bad habits from forming and carrying over to next season. It\u2019s been 17 years since Jim Johnson\u2019s death, but the former Eagles defensive coordinator’s influence is still felt across the league. Defensive coaches across the league are spamming his signature “double A-gap” fronts to put NFL quarterbacks in a mental blender. Even if you\u2019re unfamiliar with the concept, you\u2019ll recognize this defensive look if you\u2019ve watched any games this season: two linebackers flank the center while the rest of the defensive line is spread outside of the guards. Defensive coordinators have been throwing these looks at quarterbacks for over a quarter-century, but they\u2019ve really ramped up their usage over the last few seasons. In 2025, we saw 684 dropbacks against the double A-gap looks, per Pro Football Focus; in 2026, we\u2019re on pace for 928! That hasn\u2019t been a fun development for quarterbacks, who are averaging -0.24 expected points added per play on those snaps. Most of those have come in obvious passing situations, when defensive play callers can get creative with blitzes and coverage disguises. Putting six dudes on the line of scrimmage forces the offense to adjust their protection. It also creates uneasiness for the quarterback, who has to be ready for an all-out blitz. Defenses have sent an all-out blitz on just over 13% of their double A-gap snaps this season, but the offense still needs a solid protection plan just in case. They\u2019ll often keep a running back in to block, which can also play into a defense\u2019s hands when they drop out. It gives them one fewer receiver to cover. These looks can really mess with a quarterback\u2019s process if they don\u2019t have trust in their protection. And defensive coordinators can sniff that out from a mile away. If they sense any vulnerability, they\u2019ll crowd the line of scrimmage and date the offense to sort it all out. The Eagles have seen the most double A-gap looks this season with 24. The Colts are second (23), followed by the Packers and Buccaneers (22), with most of those coming against rookie Jalon Daniels. You\u2019re most likely to see these “mugged” looks against raw quarterbacks, but even some of the better quarterbacks have had issues against them this season. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen all have sub-80 passer ratings against double A-gap fronts, per PFF. Meanwhile, wily vets like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have carved them up. Jordan Love is my favorite quarterback to watch deal with these looks. His ability to make those fadeaways throws combined with his ambition as a downfield passer makes him a particularly fun watch. Love\u2019s also a quick processor\u2014an underappreciated facet of his game\u2014and Packers coach Matt LaFleur called him “the best I’ve been around in terms of protections and adjustments,” which also helps him face the pressure, real or imagined, created by the double-A gap looks. They test every aspect of playing quarterback. That\u2019s what made Caleb Williams’s crunch-time throw against the Patriots so impressive. The Patriots, one of the league leaders in double A-gap snaps, crowded the line of scrimmage showing blitz. Williams made an adjustment to protection just in case New England sent the house, and when they didn\u2019t, he kept his nerve in the pocket, read out the coverage, and found Rome Odunze in a small pocket of space downfield with a marvelous throw. When a quarterback makes a play like that, the defensive coordinator just has to tip his hat and dare him to do it again. The best defensive coordinators will keep throwing these looks out there, waiting for a quarterback to slip up. The Buccaneers asked very little of Baker Mayfield in his return from a thumb injury. He attempted just three passes over 6 air yards, but he did hit a longer scramble-drill pass for a touchdown. That was enough to beat a Panthers team that played as if it had never practiced before. Atlanta\u2019s defense should provide a better test for Mayfield. Since I\u2019ve already covered my actual pick for throw of the week\u2014Williams hitting Odunze in crunch time against the Patriots\u2014I\u2019ll go with another one from the Bears quarterback. This fireball that moved the chains on a key third-and-11. That ball traveled 29.6 yards in 1.1 seconds. It was a rocket and Williams gets style points for side-stepping the rush before firing it off, per Next Gen Stats. I\u2019m not sure what Jones was thinking when he let this pass go. Tight end Will Mallory is bracketed by two defenders and Harrison Smith is in perfect position to pick off the pass up the seam.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I\u2019ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking \u2014 from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we’ll evaluate J.J. McCarthy’s first start for the Giants, figure out what’s behind Daniel Jones’ regression, and<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34203"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34203\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}