Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I\u2019ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking \u2014 from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we\u2019ll ask the Bengals to let Joe Burrow cook, dig into Jalen Hurts\u2019 issues against the blitz, and get frustrated over Bo Nix\u2019s checkdowns. Let\u2019s talk quarterbacks. Building a more comprehensive under-center offense was a pet project for the Bengals this past offseason, and it took about 3.5 games for the team to scrap it. You could make out the exact moment when Burrow decided enough was enough. It came on the opening drive of the third quarter in Sunday\u2019s loss to Jacksonville. Burrow was sacked on an under-center dropback on the very first play. After getting the drive back on track, Burrow lined up under center again and handed it off to Chase Brown, who was stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. The Bengals offense had logged 11 under-center plays up until that point. They ran just one more, a QB sneak at the goal line, for the rest of the game. Cincinnati had just three points before flipping that switch. Burrow, who\u2019s most comfortable in the gun, found a rhythm and nearly led a second-half comeback. Some of the plays he made during that rally were unreal. He finished with over 400 passing yards on 54 attempts, which offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher called “not sustainable” after the game. Meanwhile, Burrow suggested the Bengals should “throw it more” to make up for a struggling run game. Those seem like opposing viewpoints, but I agree with both sides. While throwing it 50-plus times is unsustainable for almost every team in the NFL, the Bengals have built their roster to be one of the few teams that can do it. Between the contracts they\u2019ve given to Burrow and his two star wideouts, and the resources they\u2019ve poured into the offensive line, they\u2019re spending a lot on their dropback passing game. Burrow is one of the few quarterbacks who\u2019s been better in obvious passing situations this season. Per Next Gen Stats, he\u2019s averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and 0.14 expected points added per dropback on plays with a pre-snap pass probability over 75% \u2013 based on down and distance and the score of the game. In all other situations, he\u2019s averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and 0.0 EPA per dropback. Burrow should be better in situations where defenses can\u2019t hone in on the pass, but the under-center portions of the pass game have tanked his early-down numbers. Cincinnati may want to be a hard-nosed team that can line up under center and mash the football on the ground, but it doesn’t have the horses to do it. As Burrow said before the season, “A big part of the under center is the run game, and in the run game you have to break tackles to make it go, so we\u2019ll see come the first game.” Four games in, and Bengals running backs aren\u2019t doing a good job of breaking tackles. They\u2019re averaging a league-low 1.7 yards after contact. They\u2019re one of three teams with no rush attempts that have gone for more than 10 yards “over expected,” per Next Gen Stats. Brown and backup Samaje Perine are solid backs who contribute to the pass game, but neither moves the needle as a runner. If Cincinnati wants to make its ground game more explosive, it should look at how Kansas City did it this past offseason, and how Philadelphia did it in its Super Bowl-winning season. Those teams didn\u2019t do it with a schematic overhaul. They added a superstar back who could turn three-yard gains into explosive plays. Unless the Bengals want to call the Eagles and ask about Saquon Barkley\u2019s availability \u2014 wait, that\u2019s actually a pretty good idea \u2014 they need to drop this under-center plan and just let Burrow cook. We in the media throw around the word “blitz” too loosely. Any time five or more rushers come after the quarterback, we call it a “blitz.” Coaches use it a bit differently. To them, a “blitz” is an all-out pressure where the secondary plays man coverage across the field with no safety help \u2014 or Cover 0, as it\u2019s conventionally known. Here\u2019s former NFL coach Wade Phillips complaining about our usage of the term back in 2016. Apologies to Wade, but we still haven\u2019t learned in the ten years since he tweeted that out, and we\u2019re still using “blitz” as a catch-all term. I say all that to say this: Hurts doesn\u2019t have a blitz problem. In fact, he hasn\u2019t seen many this season. Per Pro Football Focus, the Eagles quarterback has faced Cover 0 on just four dropbacks this season. Three of them came in the red zone, and the other came on a fourth-and-22 play against Chicago. Hurts doesn\u2019t have issues against all-out blitzes; he struggles against the five-man pressures Wade calls “dogs.” More specifically, he\u2019s been rendered completely ineffective when teams send a five-man pressure with a two-deep zone behind it. His numbers on the season against those looks, via Pro Football Focus: 13 dropbacks2 completions13 passing yards-10 sack yards1 touchdown The lone touchdown accounted for all of Hurts\u2019 passing yards against the two-high zone pressures. That was wide receiver Darius Cooper\u2019s jump-ball touchdown against the Rams this past Sunday, which could have been intercepted. Here are all 13 of the dropbacks against those defensive looks. The core issue is one that Eagles fans have heard often: Hurts isn\u2019t comfortable ripping throws over the middle against zone coverage. Against these two-deep zone defenses, the middle is wide open, whether it\u2019s the Cover 2 or Quarters variant. If you\u2019re not attacking the middle of the field against those looks, you\u2019re playing into the defense\u2019s hands. The flats are well covered by the corners, and with two-deep safeties, it\u2019s difficult to connect on deep perimeter shots, which have been the strength of Hurts\u2019 game throughout his career. On top of that, with five rushers clogging up the interior rush lanes, Hurts has to get to the perimeter to scramble, where he\u2019s not nearly as effective. The Eagles offense was tormented by the same defensive looks back in 2023 and never found a solution. The fix came the following offseason when Saquon Barkley joined the team and started ripping off explosive runs. That changed how defenses could play Philadelphia. Now, with the run game struggling and Barkley out injured, the passing game is back where it was three years ago. Nick Sirianni and Hurts have had three years to think about this problem. They have only 13 games to show they\u2019ve figured it out and avoid some uncomfortable offseason conversations. It\u2019s time for the internet\u2019s favorite (and only) all-22 screenshot-based game show: “Where Did He Throw It?” If you\u2019re unfamiliar with the game, the rules are simple: I show you a screenshot of a quarterback at the top of his dropback, and you guess which receiver gets the target. Nix is in the hot seat this time. The play came on a second-and-4 early in Sunday\u2019s loss to the 49ers. Nix has just finished his drop after a play-action fake, and he has four receiving options downfield: So where did he throw it? Your options are\u2026 A. Wide receiver Marvin Mims on the deep post designed to take the top off the coverage.B. Tight end Evan Engram running the deep over route toward the left sideline.C. Running back R.J. Harvey in the flat, with a cornerback in position to rally for the tackle.D. Tight end Nate Adkins over the middle. If you guessed B, you feel the same way head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Davis Webb likely did when they watched the film back on Sunday night. That\u2019s the route this play is designed to open up. Mims\u2019 route pushes back the third level of the coverage. Harvey\u2019s presence in the flat keeps Ji\u2019Ayr Brown pinned down on the outside. Adkins occupies Fred Warner\u2019s attention in the middle. Engram is running into open grass, and Nix has plenty of time and space in the pocket to make the throw. Instead, he does this\u2026 Congrats to everyone who picked D. You\u2019re either familiar with Nix\u2019s game or really like checkdowns. That was one of the 13 checkdowns Nix threw against San Francisco, per Pro Football Focus. Only Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown more in a single game this season. I watched all those dropbacks so you didn\u2019t have to, and I found seven instances when Nix passed up an open option downfield to check it down. Nix has thrown 30 checkdowns this season, per Pro Football Focus. That\u2019s tied with Lions quarterback Jared Goff for the league lead. That wouldn\u2019t be a bad thing if Nix wasn\u2019t turning down big play opportunities to make those safe passes. Checkdowns can keep an offense on track. But Nix isn\u2019t doing that for the Broncos offense. If he\u2019s not going to throw it downfield, Nix should consider scrambling more often. It\u2019s one of his strengths, and he hasn\u2019t tapped into it nearly enough this season. Only three quarterbacks who have logged at least 100 dropbacks have fewer scrambles than Nix this season: Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers QB Jordan Love and Cousins. Rodgers and Cousins can\u2019t move, and Love is getting hit before he can even consider scrambling. Nix has no excuses. I remain skeptical of Bryce Young\u2019s hot start to the season, but his performance Sunday against the Lions made me reconsider my stance on the Panthers quarterback. We\u2019ve seen Young succeed by throwing perimeter go balls to his two big receivers, but he won a different way against the Lions. He targeted the middle of the field with confidence, which has been difficult to find on his tape over the first few seasons of his career. If Young can produce more passing maps like this against better defenses, he\u2019ll have a much higher ceiling going forward. Considering the situation, that\u2019s a ludicrous decision by Dak Prescott. Most quarterbacks see Texans safety Jalen Pitre buzzing underneath receiver CeeDee Lamb\u2019s route and take the checkdown for a short gain to set up a manageable third down. This is a game of “Where did he throw it?” that Bo Nix definitely fails. But Prescott is a madman in the best way possible, which is why football nerds will always cherish him. This is seriously the worst throw I\u2019ve ever seen from Justin Herbert. He\u2019s had some playoff stinkers, but I\u2019ve never seen him play as poorly as he did in the first half against the Seahawks. He was terrible, but I\u2019m ashamed to admit that his second half pulled me right back in. I\u2019m going down with the ship, and here\u2019s why:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I\u2019ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking \u2014 from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we\u2019ll ask the Bengals to let Joe Burrow cook, dig into Jalen Hurts\u2019 issues against the blitz,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33927"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33927"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33927\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}