I made the grave mistake of defending Justin Herbert on social media this week and sparked another unbearable debate on the Chargers quarterback. I probably should have known that nothing I would say would change the minds of those who think he\u2019s overrated. The back-and-forth between the two sides has become repetitive. Herbert backers will point to his film and expansive skill set, while his detractors will keep asking why all that talent hasn\u2019t produced more wins and better stats, with neither side willing to cede any ground. With the Chargers at 0-2 and staring down an unforgiving gauntlet of contenders that starts with Sunday\u2019s game against the Bills, their season is pretty much chalked. So, Herbert will likely go another season without notching that elusive playoff win, and the football world will keep debating whether he\u2019s worth all the hype. I\u2019m firmly on the pro-Herbert side of the debate, but I\u2019m willing to admit there are holes in his game that have contributed to L.A.\u2019s disappointing start. With Herbert facing off against Bills star Josh Allen this weekend, the contrast between their games will put his biggest weakness on full display. The Bills quarterback is a daring playmaker whose cavalier approach is highly effective and sometimes reckless. But no matter how many mistakes Allen makes, he keeps Buffalo\u2019s offense at the top of the NFL\u2019s efficiency charts and in title contention. Herbert\u2019s style of play may lead to fewer mistakes, but it hasn’t led to more consistency for his offense or more success for his team. Herbert can be a bit robotic, following the script his offensive coordinator lays out, even when the situation calls for a little improvisation. It\u2019s not that Herbert is bad when playing out of structure; he just doesn\u2019t do it nearly enough for a guy of his ability. He\u2019s 6-foot-6 and can outrun defensive linemen and most linebackers. He doesn\u2019t lose any arm strength on the run and doesn\u2019t need much time or space to get a throw off. Take this play from last year\u2019s win over the Broncos. Herbert shrugs off 285-pound defensive lineman Zach Allen, escapes the pocket, and quickly flips his hips to get a throw off with edge rusher Nik Bonitto right in his lap. Oh, and it\u2019s a perfectly placed, 30-yard dot that beats tight coverage. That\u2019s a play that only two other quarterbacks in this league can make: Allen and Patrick Mahomes. We just don\u2019t see him make those plays nearly as often as those two. It\u2019s not like Herbert is trying and failing to make them, though. And that\u2019s why it can be frustrating to watch Herbert dutifully go through his progression, hoping one of his receivers will pop open (they usually don\u2019t), and his protection will hold up (it usually doesn\u2019t). So, while he can be a victim of his circumstances \u2013 and his mediocre statistical production is a product of his offensive environment \u2013 Herbert is choosing to play on hard mode more than he needs to. Herbert taps into the play-making mindset when he\u2019s forced to. That throw against the Broncos is a good example. Here\u2019s another from last Sunday\u2019s loss to the Raiders. The play call is a dud that leaves Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby unblocked, with Herbert\u2019s play-fake putting him directly in the path of the all-World pass rusher. Herbert coolly side-steps to create space and hits tight end Oronde Gadsden II for a touchdown. If I could make one change to Herbert\u2019s game, I’d rewire his brain so he’d play more like Allen and approach every dropback as if there\u2019s an unblocked defender in his face \u2013 it wouldn\u2019t require much imagination behind that offensive line \u2013 and to play every drive like the Chargers are down 10 in crunch time. It would lead to more mistakes, sure, but like Allen, Herbert is talented enough that the good would easily outweigh the bad. With the Chargers in complete disarray, the need for Herbert to break out of his shell is stronger than ever. More than anything, he should be more aggressive in hunting play-making opportunities earlier in games before it\u2019s too late. In each of the first two weeks, Herbert played well when the game was still hanging in the balance. Per Next Gen Stats, he\u2019s averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and 0.12 EPA per dropback when L.A.\u2019s win probability is greater than 25%. Pro Football Focus has him graded as the fifth-best quarterback in the league outside the fourth quarter this season. Things have fallen apart in garbage time, though. When the Chargers have a win probability under 25%, Herbert’s yards-per-attempt average drops to 5.0 and his EPA average plummets to -0.66. Those 17 dropbacks haven\u2019t really affected the results of those games, but they have done significant damage to his stat line and how his performance over two weeks has been perceived. That\u2019s why it\u2019s difficult for Herbert truthers like me to fully blame him for the 0-2 start. He\u2019s played well outside of garbage time. But over the last two weeks, it’s become clear he needs to play even better \u2013 like the superstar quarterbacks in Kansas City and Buffalo \u2013 to overcome a crappy offensive environment and keep the game from reaching garbage time in the first place. I\u2019ll concede that point to the anti-Herbert crowd. But if they\u2019re holding him to Mahomes and Allen standards,\u00a0they might think more highly of Herbert than I do.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I made the grave mistake of defending Justin Herbert on social media this week and sparked another unbearable debate on the Chargers quarterback. I probably should have known that nothing I would say would change the minds of those who think he\u2019s overrated. The back-and-forth between the two sides has become repetitive. Herbert backers will<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33751"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33751\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}