You know that Fernando Mendoza is going first overall. You know that at No. 2, the New York Jets are deciding between Texas Tech edge David Bailey and Ohio State edge Arvell Reese. And you know that the bona fide superstars in this draft \u2014 running back Jeremiyah Love, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles \u2014 do not play premium positions. That\u2019s what we\u2019re seeing and hearing at the surface level. But this is “Sound Smart,” where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you\u2019ll have a better understanding of what to expect ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. 1. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY The Bengals won their trade for DT Dexter Lawrence. Period. At first glance, no one seemed to like the Dexter Lawrence trade for the Cincinnati Bengals. (I did, to be clear. But basically no one\u00a0else liked it.) It was\u00a0“a steal” for New York \u2014 supposedly. A Top 10 pick! For Dexter Lawrence? A 28-year-old DT? Why? How?! It\u2019s actually really simple. Lawrence was a better player than whatever rookie the Bengals were going to get at 10th overall, even taking into account the financials, the age and the long-term planning. Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson? Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or LSU corner Mansoor Delane? Lawrence or Miami tackle Francis Mauigoa? A top 10 pick sounds great. The reality of this year\u2019s No. 10 is \u2026 not so great \u2014 unless maybe Ohio State safety Caleb Downs dropped that far. In this era of information, there are rare moments where we overthink a single transaction. But there are outliers that buck the greater trends, and I see clearly why the Bengals thought this was a win for their organization. Cincinnati is a team that needs to get better in a hurry. The job security for coach Zac Taylor isn\u2019t so much my concern. It\u2019s all about the Bengals\u2019 relationship with veteran QB Joe Burrow. Listen to the way he sounded disenchanted with the game last year. He sounded like he could retire \u2014 or like he\u2019d consider pulling a Matthew Stafford and demanding a trade. Cincy could lose Burrow as early as 2027. In December, I called this\u00a0the most important offseason ever for the Bengals. This is not a drill, folks. This is one of the biggest issues an organization can face. The Bengals needed to address the issue. They\u2019re starting to act like it, adding Lawrence to such offseason additions as edge Boye Mafe, safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. I can see why \u2014 to some \u2014 that might make this move sound desperate. Or illogical. It\u2019s neither. This 2026 draft isn\u2019t very impressive at the top. There will be places on Day 2 when teams will get a third-round-graded player in the third round. Otherwise, I bet most teams will feel like they’re reaching, especially in Round 1. Some teams have fewer than 10 players with a first-round grade. It\u2019s possible the Bengals are one of those teams. Which would lend more credibility to the idea that Lawrence was worth it. It’s a part of a bigger trend: an offseason where premium players have been especially scarce. Because the draft was so weak, teams didn\u2019t let their free agents get to the open market. (There were, for example, virtually no good defensive tackles on the open market with the best free agent option being 39-year-old Calais Campbell, who is actually still available, though not especially enticing). Because the draft is so weak and free agency looked thin, teams got more aggressive in acquiring veterans in the trade market \u2014 like cornerback Trent McDuffie, edge Maxx Crosby and receiver DJ Moore. (And I know that the Crosby deal with Baltimore fell apart, but that happened, in part, because Trey Hendrickson presented a rare value that the Ravens didn\u2019t seem to initially anticipate. They probably didn’t anticipate his availability because of the trends I’m mentioning.) When it comes to the Lawrence deal, there is one thing that surprised me. And that\u2019s the contract extension: one year, $28 million. I actually don\u2019t mind that the one-year deal is equal to the entirety of the 10th overall pick\u2019s contract (four years, $29 million). But by signing Lawrence to only one year, the Bengals will almost certainly get into a more major negotiation with him next year, when he\u2019ll be 29 and will want a multi-year contract. It would be a major issue if the Bengals only had Lawrence for one year. There\u2019s some merit in signing him to a three-year deal right now to avoid cap complications down the line. But that\u2019s a headache the Giants would gladly accept, because they\u2019re now looking at a defense which, this season, will have to defend running backs such as Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs, among others. It\u2019s suddenly a ground-game league. And the Giants’ defense looks like it’s in danger of turning into ground meat next season without Lawrence. New York will probably draft inside linebacker Sonny Styles at fifth overall to help offset Lawrence’s departure. (At No. 10, it looks like maybe the Giants will take an offensive player, like ASU receiver Tyson.) But as terrific as Styles is, he’d be a whole lot better if he was playing behind Lawrence. The Bengals are a team in dire need of impact players. They didn’t see one falling into their lap on defense at 10th overall. So they moved that pick for a proven entity. If it works out, they might cure Burrow’s melancholia and keep him with the organization. Finally, it feels like the Bengals are taking action. 2. IF THERE\u2019S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW It\u2019s OK to be thinking ahead to Arch Manning and the 2027 NFL Draft. Everyone else is. At the NFL Combine in February, a pair of NFL agents sat discussing the 2026 draft at a Starbucks near the convention center in Indianapolis. But the more they discussed this year\u2019s class, the more they talked about next year\u2019s class. Texas QB Arch Manning. Oregon QB Dante Moore. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers. LSU QB Sam Leavitt. That’s what 2027 might have to offer. There\u2019s a lot of talent to get excited about \u2014 next year. There are enthusiasts who love this year’s presumed No. 1 pick, Fernando Mendoza, including \u2014 of course \u2014 the folks in Las Vegas. He is a very good prospect. After him, however, the quarterback class looks starkly undertalented and\/or underdeveloped. After Mendoza, there\u2019s a real lack of star potential at the top of the first round at just about every premium position. Quarterbacks Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) are compelling players, and they\u2019re almost definitely going to be the QB2 and QB3 of this year\u2019s class. Cole Payton (North Dakota State) figures to present strong value as a mid-round developmental prospect. But it\u2019s a good thing these QBs came out this year, because they almost certainly wouldn\u2019t rank as favorably in next year\u2019s class. Arch Manning, for example, would’ve probably been the No. 1 overall pick this year. Dante Moore might’ve also pushed Mendoza for QB1, if the Oregon prospect had entered the draft. It seems highly likely that Simpson will land in Round 1 \u2014 but in a place where he won\u2019t have to see the field in 2026. Even his father, Jason Simpson, told me that Ty wasn\u2019t like Mendoza, who was interviewing for jobs in 2026. Simpson was interviewing for a starting job in 2027. Around the league, we have seen a few teams treading water at quarterback, most notably the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. It\u2019s not paradise in the quarterback rooms for the Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers or New York Jets. Yet there is less urgency around the quarterback position this year than normal. And I think that\u2019s because everyone is thinking about next year\u2019s prizes. There’s an obvious risk, because this draft class was supposed to be better than it turned out to be. The highly-anticipated quarterbacks might return to the safety of NIL paychecks, which are \u2014 in some cases \u2014 higher than what a player might make in the NFL. Even considering all that, it\u2019s almost a total certainty that next year’s group will be better than this year\u2019s group. And so the 2027 draft class is looming \u2014 and to some degree lording \u2014 over the 2026 draft. 3. SHARING A NOT-SO-DIRTY DRAFT SECRET Is there a pattern around prospects who turn into busts? Chiefs GM Brett Veach thinks he\u2019s found one. Why do some great prospects fail to pan out? If only NFL general managers knew for sure. And for executives who only get a few years in their decision-making chair, it\u2019s even harder to get a sense of whether there\u2019s even a pattern. That\u2019s why Chiefs general manager Brett Veach\u2019s answer to a question at his pre-draft press conference last week struck me as so interesting. This is Veach\u2019s 10th year in his role. During that time, the Chiefs have hit on guys all over the roster, from QB Patrick Mahomes to center Creed Humphrey to defensive tackle Chris Jones to cornerback Trent McDuffie. They\u2019ve also missed on some players, from running back Clyde Helaire-Edwards to receiver Skyy Moore to defensive end Breeland Speaks. But more often than not, the Chiefs have hit in the top three rounds, which is a major reason why they have made so many Super Bowls. But last season, we saw that while Mahomes can do a whole lot \u2014 he can’t do it all. “If you miss on a player, it\u2019s probably the character and the love for football,” Veach said. “We all get enamored by what a player can do, and I think everyone has an element of, \u2018Well, if he\u2019s in our environment, it\u2019ll be different.\u2019 We do have a great environment here. If anyone\u2019s going to get the best out of any player, it\u2019s going to be here. But even [with] some of those players, it\u2019s hard.” It\u2019s one of the biggest clich\u00e9s of the draft process \u2014 these discussions of character and love for the game. But that\u2019s in part because it\u2019s not quantifiable and in part because it comes off as coachspeak. There\u2019s no easy measurement for either \u2014 or for how things might change once a player arrives in the NFL. But the more you speak with evaluators, the more you know that every prospect requires development. And you can’t help a guy who can’t help himself. “No one\u2019s going to be perfect, and you\u2019re not always going to get Pat Mahomes and Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith in regards to mental makeup,” Veach said. “The guys that you do roll the dice for, [you] plan the approach \u2026 and just work on that over the years. Again, I go back to the mistakes you make are guys that at the end of the day, they just don\u2019t love football. Even though you thought you were going to change them, you didn\u2019t. “We’ve tried to do better with that process, identifying those things and making sure that we\u2019re looking for the right traits and characteristics that do lend itself to future change.” 4. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY Hey Cowboys, stay the course. Dallas is putting together a solid defense. Maybe it’s not a spectacular one, but it’s a really good one. The Cowboys have taken the patient approach of spreading money around the defense \u2014 rather than investing in one unit with an unnecessary sense of urgency. This is the Micah Parsons effect, where they\u2019ve sacrificed one elite pass-rusher in the name of having elite offensive playmakers and a well-rounded defense. Don\u2019t lose sight of the plan, Dallas. “I\u2019ve looked at that mirror a lot, about how to go up and down and trade and do those kinds of things,” owner Jerry Jones said in a press conference at the owners meetings in March. “And absolutely, we\u2019ll entertain improving or an in-draft read on what gives us a better chance to get another player, and still have our pick and the red meat of top players. \u2026 With the kind of assets or the kind of ammunition we’ve got in this draft, you should look at all machinations.” There\u2019s a growing sentiment that Dallas wants to trade up for Sonny Styles or Arvell Reese. Maybe into the top five picks. I can\u2019t get behind either concept. It would derail what appeared to be the Cowboys’ strategy around the Parsons trade. From this draft, Reese is most like Parsons \u2014 but given how little playing time Reese got in his edge role at Ohio State, he\u2019s a legitimately risky play for an investment that would likely require two first-round picks. The film is excellent, but there\u2019s not that much of it. It\u2019s an easier sell for Styles, who is (in my opinion) one of two clear-cut instant Pro Bowlers alongside Jeremiyah Love. But trading up for Styles is comparable to the plot of Draft Day \u2014 giving up multiple first-round picks to get a linebacker. It\u2019s the most ridiculous plot point of the movie and that\u2019s saying something. I don\u2019t like the Cowboys doing it in real life. So here\u2019s hoping if the Cowboys do move up, they don\u2019t worry about getting into the top five picks. They jump up a few spots, if necessary, to snag Miami edge Rueben Bain or Caleb Downs \u2026 or even Styles, if he slips to seventh or eighth. But the whole idea was to use the Parsons trade as an opportunity to bring depth and balance to the defense. Don\u2019t abandon that whole idea. Make sure you come away from the 2026 draft with two first-round picks. Make sure you preserve your first-rounders in the 2027 draft. For the love of all things good in the world, don\u2019t write “Sonny Styles No Matter What” on a Post-it. 5. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN The draft process has been complicated for Rueben Bain. The draft process is long, invasive and comprehensive. Just a month ago, Caleb Downs told me that he didn\u2019t feel like the months leading up to the draft were one big interview because NFL teams are “doing background checks on your childhood stuff, so at this point, your whole life is sort of a job interview.” That\u2019s why NFL teams knew about Rueben Bain\u2019s car accident long before the public did. In March 2024, Bain rear-ended another vehicle,\u00a0per a police report published on The Read Optional. Three of the four passengers\u00a0were not wearing seat belts and 22-year-old Destiny Betts sustained injuries severe enough to put her in a coma. She died in June 2024. “We\u2019ve known about it since last summer,” one scout told me regarding the accident. “I still think he goes in the top 10. Again, everyone has known about this in the NFL.” I sat down with Bain last month in Portland at the Adidas “Pro Day” \u2014 just after the NFL Combine \u2014 to talk about the pre-draft process. At the time, I didn\u2019t know about the accident, which is important context for the interview. I asked him how his meetings with teams went. And he told me what it was like speaking with the Jets, who were his first interview at the combine and are picking at Nos. 2 and 16 in the draft on Thursday night. “It definitely was nerve-wracking,” Bain told me. “That first meeting, walking up to my first meeting, my heart was pounding \u2014 like literally beating on my chest. But once I sat down and got in the swing of things, I was actually just being myself, talking, being confident in my knowledge of the game.” One NFL scout confirmed that his team \u2014 and likely every team \u2014 checked in about the accident. So in all likelihood, Bain answered some hard questions from the Jets. Chiefs GM Brett Veach said his scouting staff spoke with Bain about it. The strange reality, in hindsight, was that Bain was one of the combine\u2019s biggest talking points for different reasons. The discussion centered around his arm length (30\u215e inches), tied for the fourth-shortest for a defensive end since 1999. “I don\u2019t really think about it,” he told me. “I don\u2019t give no energy to it.” Bain looked back on his time at the combine with fondness. “I could\u2019ve stayed in Indianapolis forever if we kept doing what we was doing,” he told me. “Everybody there was kind of complaining about it, dragging about it. But for me, my first two days was super fun, just talking football, interviewing with teams, stuff like that. Then the next three, four days,\u00a0just watching guys compete, getting out there, seeing the whole experience of the combine.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
You know that Fernando Mendoza is going first overall. You know that at No. 2, the New York Jets are deciding between Texas Tech edge David Bailey and Ohio State edge Arvell Reese. And you know that the bona fide superstars in this draft \u2014 running back Jeremiyah Love, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32577"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32577\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlinebettingnewyork.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}