The Big Picture: Free-Agent RB Market Goes From Bad to Worse Without Breece Hall

INDIANAPOLIS — The free-agent market for running backs was already a bad one. Now it’s going to be even worse. The New York Jets are making sure of that by effectively taking Breece Hall off the market, as general manager Darren Mougey promised Tuesday the 24-year-old would be back with the team in 2026. This comes just a few days after Cowboys running back Javonte Williams got a three-year, $24 million deal to return to Dallas. That leaves Seattle’s Kenneth Walker as the bell of the free-agent ball at the running back position — if he actually hits free agency. Beyond Walker, who’s ranked No. 11 in FOX Sports’ top 100 free agents, teams will have to look deep for any value in a pool highlighted by the likes of J.K. Dobbins, Rico Dowdle and Travis Etienne. RELATED: 2026 NFL Free Agency: The Top 100 Players Available and Potential Fits Even with Walker and Hall, none of them figured to break the bank like Saquon Barkley did two years ago, when he signed with the Eagles for $37.75 million over three years. There simply isn’t a Saquon-like star in the group. That’s probably why the Cowboys were so quick to bring back Williams at an average of $8 million per season, and why the Jets are determined to bring back Hall, even if it’s at a greater cost. “We’ll find a way to keep Breece here if we can’t get a deal done,” Mougey said at the NFL Scouting Combine. “The tags are an option. Ideally, we’d find a way to get a deal done and keep Breece around. I think I’ve said that for the last year since I’ve got here. Breece is a good player. We want to find a way to keep him around.” That’s still quite the turnaround for a Jets team that seemed poised to trade Hall at the deadline last year. They had conversations with several teams about him, but no team was willing to meet their price. Since then, the Jets have been insistent that Hall is a part of their future. And it does make some sense. Hall is a good player, who rushed for 1,065 yards for a 3-14 Jets team last season. But it’s hard to measure his actual value to the Jets, who without a quarterback figure to be just as bad in 2026. Using the franchise tag on Hall would cost the Jets about $14.5 million. The transition tag would cost about $11.7 million. And presumably, in a long-term contract, Hall isn’t likely to settle for less. That’s a bit of a problem because paying a premium for running backs has been a dicey proposition in recent NFL history, especially for bad teams. Barkley is the rare big-money back who made a difference for any team, rushing for 2,005 yards and helping lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl in his first season in Philadelphia. But even his value was diminished, as his rushing totals dropped to just 1,140 yards last year. Some team was probably going to spend on this diminished free-agent crop, though, which is good news for Walker (1,027 yards last season), who does seem headed for the market after Seahawks GM John Schneider was noncommittal Tuesday about being able to re-sign him. Complicating their efforts is that Walker’s value on the market could be artificially inflated, since the drop-off from him to the likes of the oft-injured Dobbins (772 yards), Dowdle (1,076) and Etienne (1,107) seems huge. The others may be decent options at the right price. But Walker is likely the only difference-maker in the group. The Jets clearly believe Hall can make a difference for them, though. He could be a dangerous weapon for new offensive coordinator Frank Reich. But until the Jets find a quarterback to replace Justin Fields and actually run their offense in a competent way, a highly paid running back is nothing more than a luxury. The Jets, who are projected to have nearly $80 million in cap space this offseason, can certainly afford it. There are just other luxuries they need more. In the Big Picture, we contextualize key moves and moments so you can instantly understand why they matter.