2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza Isn’t Patrick Mahomes, But …

At the college level, Fernando Mendoza played quarterback like an old man. It’s a compliment. I promise. Think about Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. I hate to call them old, but that’s just the reality of the NFL. Because the other reality is, their heavy artillery is in their mind. For a draft prospect, the old-man approach is also something we’re deeply unfamiliar with seeing from a first-round draft choice — particularly at No. 1 overall. And perhaps that’s why so many are fixated on what Mendoza is not. He’s not an elite athlete by any measurement. He’s not the most powerful thrower. He’s not this raw, toolsy player who could someday be the No. 1 QB in the NFL. And he might be a calm, cool operator in the pocket, but he has a geeky persona that we don’t typically associate with the face of a franchise. Since Patrick Mahomes took the mantle from Tom Brady as the league’s North Star quarterback, NFL teams have sought out better athletes and bigger arms at the position. Along with Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson further proved that the risks are worth it with those types of prospects. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix provided an astonishing blend of physical tools all in one draft class. Former first-overall pick Cam Ward’s rookie season was reminiscent of what Maye and Williams did in their first year. They are all prospects being developed in the image of Mahomes, whether people want to admit it or not. Mendoza isn’t like those guys. He’s a throwback to when Brady was the North Star. And perhaps it’s a nice full-circle moment that Mendoza is a longtime Brady fan. Brady is a minority owner of the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Raiders are going to draft Mendoza at No. 1 overall. Mendoza’s draft profile throws me back to Joe Burrow in 2020, Jared Goff in 2016 and Matt Ryan in 2008. Mendoza is accurate like Burrow was — and that’s in part because they both have so much confidence in what they’re seeing from the defense and the offense before the snap. Mendoza is a smooth pocket operator like Goff, with a knack for avoiding trouble with good technique and enough mobility. Mendoza manages games in many of the ways that Ryan succeeded in college and the NFL, with a good feel for how to make the most of all 60 minutes. And remember, Ryan had 43 starts at Boston College. That’s a lot of football experience coming into the NFL. Mendoza had 36 starts at Cal and Indiana — and he looks like he has as much experience as Ryan. For years, we’ve heard general managers, scouts and coaches pound the table for patience around QB prospects. Mendoza will need it, just like Ward and Williams and others did. But I think Mendoza will need that patience for different reasons. With Mendoza, you need to commit to a really strong supporting cast. You need to build your team better than the Bengals have for Burrow — and similar to how the Lions have for Goff. Even Ryan was at his best when the Falcons had Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu catching the ball and a young-and-explosive Devonta Freeman running it. It’s not a crime for a top-tier quarterback to need some help. The beauty of drafting Mendoza is that if you give him a healthy offense, he’s going to operate it as the system is designed. And new Raiders coach Klint Kubiak has just the right system for Mendoza. When the supporting cast falters and the system comes up short, Mendoza will struggle. But when comparing that to meteoric talents such as Allen, Mahomes and Jackson … it’s really not that different? Those stars struggled through this past season, because they couldn’t quite lift their supporting cast every week. We saw teams go overboard in leaving those QBs without the weapons they needed. The difficulty of drafting Mendoza is what we’re seeing with C.J. Stroud. The Texans’ pocket passer has become more and more streaky in his three NFL seasons and will soon be due for an extension. Houston is going to have to pay him. But how much? Given his past production, Stroud deserves Sam Darnold money or Baker Mayfield money, which is about $100 million over three years. These contracts give their teams a chance to keep supporting their quarterback for years to come. If you give Allen money ($55 million per season) to Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts or even Trevor Lawrence, you might find yourself in trouble. But that’s an issue for three or four years from now, which is not to say that a team shouldn’t consider it when drafting a quarterback. It’s just to say that the Raiders should probably consider themselves lucky to want to negotiate a second contract with Mendoza, given the number of first-round QBs who do not get an extension from their first team. There will be plenty to teach Mendoza about the nuances of the game. There will just be less to teach him than there may have been with Ward or Williams, the past two No. 1 picks. That actually can scare coaches — and bores fans — because there’s a thrill of buying a pack of trading cards and hoping you’ll get something special, rather than simply buying the card you want. The expectations are going to be that Mendoza is pro-ready. The reality is that his pro readiness is better than the other QBs in this draft. He’s not Mahomes (who sat his rookie year). He’s not Allen (who didn’t break out until his third year). He’s not Lamar (who broke out in Year 2). You’re not going to find a guy like that in every draft, and you’re not going to find a guy like that in this draft. So yes, picking Mendoza is settling, in some ways. But it’s not a resignation. He can operate an elite offense. He will get better with time and patience. He’s a great fit for the Raiders. We may never think of Mendoza as the NFL’s QB1, but with his smarts, diligence and hard work, he might spend a decade in the top 10. That’s a prospect the Raiders can’t, shouldn’t and wouldn’t pass up.