2026 NFL Quarterback Tiers: The Three QBs At The Top; Who’s Replacement Level?

With the 2026 NFL season at its midpoint, now’s a good time to revisit my preseason quarterback tiers and revise them based on what we’ve seen over the first two months. Tiers are based mostly on each quarterback’s performance this season, while still considering their full body of work. We’ve seen a lot of quarterbacks make starts in 2026, but we’re limiting this exercise to the 32 passers we expect to start in Week 18 if they remain healthy. We didn’t consider quarterbacks who have been ruled out for the rest of the season, so you won’t find Jaxson Dart or Gardner Minshew on the list, but Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts were included. With that out of the way, let’s get to the tiers. We’ll start at the bottom. Replacement Level | Promising, Need To See MoreThe Underachievers | Productive But InconsistentPlaying At High Level | MVP Level | The Big Three Tier 7: Replacement Level None of the five fanbases rooting for these quarterbacks would be happy if they started on opening day next season. Deshaun Watson has come up big in the clutch, but has been downright unplayable outside of it. J.J. McCarthy’s pocket presence is still a glaring issue despite his solid start in New York. The Dolphins signed Malik Willis as a stopgap, and while he’s been solid, he hasn’t been good enough to keep them from drafting a quarterback in the spring. Daniel Jones looks completely broken, and Carson Beck was buried on Arizona’s depth chart before the team was forced to insert him into the starting lineup. Tier 6: Promising But Need To See More Let’s start with Fernando Mendoza, who’s been thrust into the Raiders’ starting lineup after the team sent Kirk Cousins back to Minnesota. I’ve got high hopes for the first-overall pick and wouldn’t be surprised if he plays like a Tier 3 quarterback once he gets his feet under him. He’s a quick processor with a strong arm that doesn’t lose any accuracy when targeting the perimeter. The Raiders offense won’t be as efficient with veteran Cousins running the show, but it might be more explosive. Bo Nix, Cam Ward and Michael Penix Jr. all have one fatal flaw holding them back: Tier 5: The Underachievers Oh, Justin. What have they done to you? If you actually study the tape, you can still see flashes of the pocket movement and arm talent that had Justin Herbert playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but Mike McDaniels’ “pure progression” passing game appears to have broken his brain. It feels like he’s due for at least one awful interception every week. The talent is still there. A scheme change and some better supporting talent will get Herbert back to playing at a high level. It just won’t be in 2026. Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, two reclamation-project success stories, have both regressed this season. I have more confidence in Darnold turning things around. He’s had some bad turnover luck, but if he can eliminate the mistakes – or just cut down on them – he can be productive. Mayfield just can’t seem to stay healthy, and it may require a change in play style in order for him to do so. Tier 4: Productive But Inconsistent I’m not sure what to make of Matthew Stafford’s first half. He’s still putting some ridiculous throws on tape, but any time a defense moves him off his spot, the dropback is dead on arrival. I don’t know what to expect out of the 38-year-old. We could be watching the beginning of the end for one of the greatest passing talents we’ve ever seen. If the Jets got better coaching, Geno Smith would get more recognition for the season he’s having. He’s been the saving grace for an offense that ranks around the league average in efficiency, despite an unreliable run game and dubious pass-protection schemes. Smith’s pocket presence and downfield passing have kept the offense afloat. Bryce Young and Jayden Daniels are similar quarterbacks. Their offenses are doing them no favors, but they’ve both remained productive against lesser competition. Better defenses cause major issues for both. Their smaller frames will cause issues throughout their careers, which makes it difficult to fully buy in. I’ve got an “incomplete” grade on Jalen Hurts, who struggled in a flawed Philadelphia offense before the blood clot scare landed him on IR. Tyler Shough is an interesting case. He’s certainly good enough to lock down a long-term job in New Orleans, but major improvement feels like a long shot. He’s already played a lot of football for a second-year pro. We may be closer to his peak than the Saints want to acknowledge. He’s older than Trevor Lawrence and just one year younger than Jordan Love. And then we have the old dudes. I view Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins the same way. Both are well past their prime, but they know enough ball to get them by – if their pass protection holds up. Put these guys under pressure, and they melt. Tier 3: Playing At A High Level Caleb Williams was difficult to place. While he’s played like a Tier 2 quarterback for most of the season, he also has had two stinkers against Minnesota and Tampa Bay that can’t be overlooked. Williams still deserves credit for his improvement. He’s been more willing to let Ben Johnson’s offense work for him, and he’s taken his playmaking to another level. He’s also improved his accuracy, which had been the biggest area of concern coming into the season. The third-year starter may not be ready for one of the top tiers just yet, but he’s on track to get there very soon. It’s difficult to rank Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff. They’re all efficient pocket passers who’ve had to overcome bad defenses – which I didn’t expect to be writing about Stroud this season. But without top-tier physical ability, all three have a clear ceiling on their respective games. Prescott is the best of the three when he’s at his best. Stroud has the most potential. And Goff is the most consistent. Drake Maye would have garnered consideration if not for his setback against Green Bay. I don’t want to overreact to one game, but that three-interception performance showed his early-season issues haven’t been fully solved. I’m expecting a big second half for Maye nonetheless. Tier 2: Playing At An MVP Level The Bengals gave up the “under center” gimmick and let Joe Burrow cook, and a month later, he’s the odds-on MVP favorite. He’s playing at a ridiculously high level right now, but having two top-10 receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – both in the top half of our list of the season’s top 50 players – has eased the playmaking burden. Still, if Burrow can keep this up all season, he could turn the “big three” into a “big four.” If I had an MVP vote, it would go to Jordan Love, who’s turning the Packers offense into a top-10 team based on expected points added. Green Bay’s got no run game, and its offensive line is in shambles. That hasn’t stopped Love from pushing the ball downfield with shocking efficiency. Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy are also in the MVP discussion thanks to their efficient starts. These two are getting a lot of schematic help, but both are playing their roles as well as you could possibly expect. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them wins the award. Tier 1: The Big Three There are a few quarterbacks who are knocking on the door of this tier thanks to their play this season, but it’s going to take more than a nine-game stretch to prove they belong with these three, who have dragged their teams to the playoffs and competed for MVP trophies pretty much every season they’ve been healthy. Lamar Jackson’s getting hurt once again may have been enough to lose his spot if he hadn’t been playing so well before the freak thumb injury that landed him on IR. He was throwing as well as he ever has. His pocket movement looked sharper, and he had regained the mobility that lower-body injuries had cost him in 2025. He also looked like a perfect fit for new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle’s offense. I revisited his early-season tape this week just to confirm that Jackson still belonged in this tier, and it left little doubt. The injury gods may have cost us an all-time season. As for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, do I really have to explain why they’re included here? Allen has been a workhorse for the Bills once again, and Mahomes is the only reason the Chiefs’ passing game has a pulse.