NFL Week 6 Betting Report: Bettors Backing The Over In Caleb Williams’ Return

Bookmakers are fairly certain Caleb Williams and Lamar Jackson will be on the field Sunday. NFL Week 6 odds certainly point in that direction. But there’s a notable difference in value to the spread among those two quarterbacks. “What we learned the past few weeks was that the Bears don’t necessarily need Caleb out there to perform. He’s worth 3 to 3.5 points to the number,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “But I still think Lamar is closer to that 6-point value to the line for what the Ravens want to do with their offense.” Both QBs will be on FOX airwaves Sunday, for Bears-Falcons and Ravens-Browns. Much more on those matchups and other notable games, with sportsbook insights and a sharper play, as we dive into NFL Week 6 betting nuggets. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. On Wednesday, Williams was a full participant in practice, strengthening the opinion that he’s playing this week at Atlanta. But interestingly, the Bears dropped from -3 to -2.5, then to -1.5, returning to the opening number. That’s after the line climbed from Bears -1.5 on Sunday to -3 on Monday morning at Caesars Sports. The reason for the move from Bears -3 to -2.5: Falcons QB Michael Penix (ribs) also practiced Wednesday, though in limited fashion. Penix is expected to start in Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. As for the drop from Chicago -2.5 to -1.5: “Sharp action on the Bears +2.5,” Feazel said. But the point spread isn’t really the story of this game. Caesars opened the total at 47.5 and on Wednesday evening, it was up to 51. “The bigger story is we’ve seen a lot of action on the Over,” Feazel said, adding that sharp action landed on Over 48.5 and 49.5. “Both teams have a lot of good things going on offense, and their defenses haven’t shown up that much. “The public is expecting a lot of points, taking the Over on straight bets and adding it to all their parlays.” Chicago is 3-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Atlanta is 2-3 SU and ATS. Professional bettor Randy McKay won on his last two picks in this space. In Week 5, he took the Giants +3.5 on the road vs. the Commanders, and New York covered in a 27-27 tie. In NFL Week 6 odds, McKay is on Jaguars -2.5 vs. the Texans, with Jacksonville (4-1 SU/3-2 ATS) playing in London for a second straight week. “It’s a better situation for the Jags, staying in London and not having to travel, like Houston has to,” McKay said. “The injury report favors the Jags here, as well. I’m expecting a better effort from the Jags, after a dramatic win last week vs. the Eagles.” Indeed, Jacksonville barely scratched out a 19-17 victory against shorthanded Philadelphia. The Jags won on Cam Little’s 57-yard field goal as time expired. On the injury front, Texans running back David Montgomery (groin) is doubtful. Houston (1-4 SU and ATS) finally got its first win of the season last week, routing the host Titans 26-3. The Seahawks spent almost half their existence in the AFC West, alongside the Broncos, from 1977-2001. So the Week 6 Thursday night game is somewhat of a throwback. Seattle (3-2 SU/1-3-1 ATS) opened as a 2.5-point road favorite vs. Denver (3-2 SU and ATS) and moved to -3 on Monday at Caesars. On Tuesday, the Seahawks nudged to -2.5 (-115), where the line remained Wednesday night, for Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET start. “We took some sharp action on Broncos +3,” Feazel said, while noting the public betting masses also aren’t necessarily sold on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. “Right now, we’re seeing Broncos moneyline action and Seattle spread. “The public perception is that Sam Darnold has not looked great, and that Seattle is not the same team without Kenneth Walker III. What we’re gonna need is the Seahawks by one or two points, which is kind of a tall ask.” In another 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff on FOX, it’s Ravens vs. Browns. As noted above, Jackson (ankle) is expected back after sitting out Sunday’s thrilling 30-23 overtime road win vs. the Falcons. Cleveland (3-2 SU and ATS) went on a semi-surprising three-game win streak. But the Browns then managed just 12 points in a 17-12 road loss to the Jets last weekend. For Ravens-Browns, Baltimore (4-1 SU/2-3 ATS) opened -3.5 at Caesars and advanced to -4.5 Monday/-5.5 early Wednesday. On Wednesday night, it was Ravens -5. “So far, what we’re seeing is exactly what you’d expect, with Lamar playing this week and the Browns underperforming against the Jets,” Feazel said. “There’s a lot of action on the Ravens. The love affair has faded a bit with the Browns. “People are seeing the Ravens as a free space on their moneyline parlay cards, too. There’s gonna be a big need for the Browns on Sunday.” As Feazel noted last week, the public betting masses can’t get enough of Josh Allen and the Bills (4-1 SU and ATS). “They’ve been betting Buffalo, no matter what the line is. They don’t think twice about that,” Feazel said. The Bills’ 37-34 Monday night overtime win vs. the Rams only enhanced the public’s drive. The Bills then stayed out West for their Week 6 road game vs. the Raiders, in a 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. However, over four weeks, the Raiders were the only NFL team that was 4-0 ATS. And Las Vegas was nearly 4-0 SU, too, losing at home to the Chiefs 30-27 in Week 4. That’s creating regional bias toward the Raiders among Las Vegas bettors. And that’s even after the Silver & Black got whacked 31-7 at New England last week, falling to 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS. “There’s gonna be a lot of public action on the Bills,” Feazel said. “But one thing we’ve noticed within Nevada is that there’s a lot of public action on the Raiders. “So I think we’ll see two-way action. There are a lot of Raiders fans liking what they see.” Raiders bettors are mostly taking +195 on the moneyline, pulling for an outright upset, while Bills backers are laying the points. Buffalo opened -6 at Caesars, dropped to -5.5 on Tuesday morning and -4.5 on Tuesday afternoon. “I think we’re gonna need the Bills to win and the Raiders to cover. And we’re probably gonna need the Under,” Feazel said. Indeed, the total opened at 51.5 and is already up to 53.5, matching the highest total in NFL Week 6 odds, with the Cowboys-Packers game also at 53.5.