2026 NFL Odds: Fade Tampa Bay’s Win Total, Back Panthers In NFC South

The Hall of Fame Game is this week, so you know what that means: The NFL season is here. Well, almost here. With that, I want to throw out a couple of wagers I believe will cash for us this season — although it means we’re gonna have to hold these tickets for a while. Let’s dive into it. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. BUCCANEERS’ WIN TOTAL If we had vibe rankings entering the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be near the bottom of the league. Tampa Bay finished 8-9 last season after starting the season 6-2. It would only win two of its final nine games, fading badly down the stretch. There was talk of head coach Todd Bowles being removed from his post, but the franchise decided to run it back one more season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield asked for a contract extension this offseason and Tampa Bay has declined to offer him something acceptable. Mayfield voiced his frustration as training camp started, which led to a report that Tampa Bay was taken aback by Mayfield’s open hostility to not getting a new deal. In addition, Tampa Bay’s best defensive player has asked for a trade. Vita Vea will not show up to camp until a new deal is given to him or he’s traded. Mayfield is underpaid for his production in a Bucs uniform and his standing among the rest of his peers. However, T.B. not extending Mayfield this offseason is a wise decision, as he’s starting to decline as a player. Mayfield is a fireplug on the field. He’s high energy and passionate, but he’s older now and is getting beat up. He had 900 fewer passing yards in 2025 than he did in 2024. His touchdown percentage was down, and his completion percentage dropped by eight percent. Mayfield also had the majority of his turnovers during Tampa Bay’s final nine games last season. I don’t have high hopes that he’s going to bounce back this year. He’s upset about his contract and he’s a year older. That’s not a recipe for success. It’s worth noting the parts around Mayfield are good. When healthy, the offensive line is above average. The skill guys are excellent. Mayfield has the options to score points. Then there’s Bowles. He is a defensive coach with a defense that’s gotten worse the last three seasons. In 2023, the Bucs were seventh in points allowed, followed by 16th in 2024 and 20th in 2025. No surprise, but Tampa’s defensive DVOA has gotten worse by the season. Some of that could be correlated to an older defensive roster that’s seen some turnover which was needed. The Bucs drafted Rueben Bain and Josiah Trotter with their first two picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. However, it’s not a deep defense on paper, and those rookies will need to produce quickly. So, that’s a ton of words to say I’m not buying the Bucs this season. They won eight games last year and I think they are worse heading into 2026. The Saints and Panthers are better in the division, and it feels like the last dance for this coaching staff and the Qb. PANTHERS’ DIVISION FINISH The Panthers won the division in 2025, although it was with a losing record. They were a team that lacked consistency but proved they were good enough to beat anyone. Carolina beat the Rams and Packers in the regular season and was leading the Rams late in the fourth quarter at home in its divisional playoff game. This Panthers team is better in 2026, and it has some winning experience that will give it confidence. Still, as is the case with most teams, the success of the Panthers comes down to their quarterback, Bryce Young. Young had his best professional season in 2025, and now, entering Year 3 with head coach Dave Canales, the team expects his game to improve. Canales gave up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik in hopes of leading a more aggressive offense. The Panthers have a solid running back room and hope Jonathan Brooks is ready to contribute after being injured in back-to-back seasons. Also, the Panthers’ wide receiver room features reigning offensive Rookie of the Year, Tetairoa McMillian, along with some other promising young players. Remember, though, the Carolina defense was an issue last season. Carolina couldn’t get home with just four rushers, so it signed Jaelen Phillips this season and drafted Lee Hunter. It also added Devin Lloyd to play middle linebacker after his second-team All-Pro season in Jacksonville. Ultimately, the defense will be much better this season. Now, let’s talk about the division. As I wrote above, I’m out on the Bucs this season. The Saints appear to be trendy but the Panthers roster is just better than New Orleans. Could Tyler Shough play so well it doesn’t matter? Of course. But I don’t see it at the moment. Finally, we have the Falcons. What’s the saying? If you have two quarterbacks, you have none? Right now, Atlanta’s quarterback situation is one of the worst in the NFL. I’m out on Atlanta. That leaves one team to win the NFC South.