2026 NFL Offseason: The Biggest X-Factor For Every AFC Team Next Season

By and large, we know who the projected stars are for every NFL team. But which players — bigger names and those under the radar — will have an outsized impact on their club’s success with a productive year? Here’s my X-factor for every AFC team in 2026 (stay tuned for the NFC edition on Thursday): AFC East Free-agent acquisition Bradley Chubb is the Bills’ new No. 1 pass rusher, which could create more favorable matchups for Rousseau, who had seven sacks last season. A former first-round pick, Rousseau is key to helping new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s defense come together. If he can take a step forward in his sixth NFL season, Rousseau would be a game-changer for what’s been an average pass rush. In Miami’s underwhelming receivers room, Malik Washington may be the biggest bright spot. The third-year pro’s 317 receiving yards last season topped all current Dolphins wide receivers. His continued growth would provide a big boost to new Miami quarterback Malik Willis in the pass game, and give opposing defenses another weapon to worry about outside of star running back De’Von Achane. With Garrett Bradbury traded to the Chicago Bears, Wilson, who started 13 games at left guard as a rookie last season, is the new starting center. His ability to communicate with quarterback Drake Maye will go a long way to determining whether the MVP runner-up stays upright in 2026. Last season, only Geno Smith, Cam Ward and Justin Herbert were sacked more times than Maye. The Jets failed to record a single interception last season, so they desperately need more defensive playmaking in 2026. If Wright plays to the level he did in Chicago in 2025 — five interceptions en route to Pro Bowl honors — New York could have a competitive defense under coach Aaron Glenn. AFC North The Ravens need pass-rush help opposite free-agent acquisition Trey Hendrickson. If Young, a second-round rookie, develops as hoped, new coach Jesse Minter’s defense will have another talented edge defender to help out its talented secondary. The Bengals didn’t pick up the fifth-year option in Murphy’s rookie contract, but he did register a career-high 5.5 sacks last season. With the addition of Dexter Lawrence II and Boye Mafe to the defensive line, Murphy is positioned to take another big step forward in 2026 — and help Cincinnati’s revamped, new-look defense meet big expectations. Whether the Browns’ starting quarterback in 2026 is Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders, Judkins’ success is paramount to taking pressure off Cleveland’s pass game. A healthy Judkins could surpass 1,000 rushing yards in 2026 playing behind a much-improved offensive line. One of the Steelers’ biggest problems last season was that they didn’t have a wide receiver defenses feared other than DK Metcalf. If Pittman can find success in Mike McCarthy’s offense, similar to how he played for the Indianapolis Colts, 42-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers could enjoy a deep playoff run in his final NFL season. AFC South A strong running game could be exactly what quarterback C.J. Stroud needs to get back on track, which would make the Texans a Super Bowl contender. Cue former Detroit Lion Montgomery, whose addition gives Houston a promising RB tandem with second-year pro Woody Marks. The Colts didn’t make any major moves to fill the hole at edge rusher opposite Laiatu Latu, so Tuimoloau’s development will be integral for an Indianapolis defense that lost major contributors in nickelback Kenny Moore II and linebacker Zaire Franklin. Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Brian Thomas Jr. If Thomas can get back to how he played as a rookie in 2024, when he ranked third in the NFL in receiving yards, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a good chance to build on what was an MVP-caliber finish to 2025. Thomas averaged 50.5 receiving yards per game last season, down from 75.4 as a rookie. Winston recently said there was never a point as a rookie when he felt like himself physically. Now in Year 2, the former third-round pick is fully healthy from ACL and hamstring injuries and should benefit in a big way from the Titans’ much-improved defensive line. AFC West Nix was a good, winning quarterback through his first two NFL seasons. If he makes the step forward to becoming an elite QB, the Broncos could go from AFC contender to perennial Super Bowl threat. A healthy Rashee Rice is the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver, capable of lifting Kansas City’s offense back to elite status. But he hasn’t proved to be dependable, missing 22 games over the past two years, including six due to suspension. Tucker, a former third-round pick, had career-highs in receiving yards (696) and receiving touchdowns (5) last season. His continued growth would give the Raiders a third offensive weapon they can count on behind star tight end Brock Bowers and second-year running back Ashton Jeanty, a solid foundation for new coach Klint Kubiak. The Chargers are a much more dangerous team when quarterback Justin Herbert is protected and not forced to channel heroics. Slater, Herbert’s blindside protector, missed all of last season after tearing his patellar tendon during training camp. Without Slater, the Pro Bowl QB was sacked a career-high 54 times.