NFL Contender Tiers: Where Do Rams, Eagles, Patriots Land After Blockbuster Deals?

A flurry of deals happened Monday, though they didn’t really do much to shake up the NFL landscape. The Rams were on a Super Bowl track long before they got Myles Garrett. The Browns were plummeting with or without him. The A.J. Brown trade had been baked in for some time. And Odell Beckham’s return to New York didn’t move the needle at all. By now it’s clear who the real contenders are, which teams are on the cusp, and which ones are just fooling themselves and their fans. But in case it’s not, here’s a look at the real and fake contenders, broken down by tiers. *Super Bowl odds according to DraftKings (listed in parentheses) Tier 8: The race to the top of the 2027 Draft Las Vegas Raiders (+15000)New York Jets (+15000)Miami Dolphins (+30000)Cleveland Browns (+15000)Arizona Cardinals (+40000) It is a good bet that these five teams will own the first five picks in the 2027 NFL Draft. That’s great news for them because four of them desperately need a franchise quarterback, and next year’s draft should be full of them. The Raiders are the ones that don’t need a franchise QB anymore after drafting Fernando Mendoza No. 1 in April. They even improved their team around him — at least a little. In fact, if they weren’t in the AFC, and in particular the AFC West, they might have a shot at being in the playoff race most of the season. But the road is too tough. And at some point they’ll hand Mendoza the keys, which almost always means an initial step backward. But the other four teams really do need a franchise quarterback and the race for the No. 1 pick — maybe Texas QB Arch Manning — could be fascinating (or disgraceful, depending on how obvious the tanking becomes). None of these teams have a realistic shot at the playoffs, and that should be obvious to even the most optimistic of them by no later than Halloween. The Jets might actually be the best team in this sad bunch. They have a good offensive line, a couple of good skill players and an adequately rebuilt defense. And Geno Smith might actually improve their QB play, too. But given his penchant for throwing interceptions the past two years, that might not be saying much. The Dolphins don’t seem to think they’re in the tank yet. Why else would they sign the top free agent QB (Malik Willis) and keep RB De’Von Achane? But look at the rest of their team. They’ll see it eventually, too. It stinks. And yet they still might be better than both the Browns and the Cardinals, who are both redefining Quarterback Hell. The Cards have some impressive skill players (WR Marvin Harrison Jr., TE Trey McBride, RB Jeremiyah Love), but their quarterback will either be an unhappy Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew, or maybe third-round rookie Carson Beck. With a still-terrible defense, that won’t lead to a lot of wins, especially against a brutal schedule that could easily lead them to an 0-13 start. As for the Browns, their decision to trade Myles Garrett to the Rams tells you all you need to know about what they’re thinking this season. And the fact that they’re trying to squeeze whatever’s left out of QB Deshaun Watson says everything about what new coach Todd Monken thinks of the other young quarterbacks on his team. They are all-out on 2026, whether they admit it or not. They just need to hope that whatever QB they fall in love with in next year’s draft doesn’t choose to go back to school just to avoid playing in Cleveland. Tier 7: The playoff fringe New Orleans Saints (+8000)Tennessee Titans (+12000) This is a special category for two improving teams that will be average, at best, but could have a shot at making the playoffs if everything goes right. The best chance belongs to the Saints, who played really well behind rookie QB Tyler Shough down the stretch last season and then got him a couple of big weapons in RB Travis Etienne and rookie WR Jordyn Tyson this offseason. The biggest factor for them, though, is that the NFC South still stinks. The Saints were 6-11 last season and missed the division title by two games. It’s a short walk to .500 and playoff contention. Life won’t be nearly as easy for the Titans, who almost certainly will miss the playoffs in the stacked AFC and top-heavy AFC South. But they are improving, with a better coaching staff and better cast around young QB Cam Ward. They might double their win total from three to six and could still be in the playoff chase in December. But real contention is more likely a year away. Tier 6: Need some help (and some health) Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000)Indianapolis Colts (+6500)New York Giants (+7000)Washington Commanders (+6500) I know, I know. The Steelers are the defending AFC North champions and probably deserve a better tier than this. That’s a reasonable argument, except that they had one of the NFL’s worst offenses (25th) and one of the NFL’s worst defenses (26th) last season, despite going 10-7. They also lost their longtime head coach (though Mike McCarthy is a pretty good replacement for Mike Tomlin), didn’t add a lot to their defense and are still relying on a 42-year-old quarterback. RB Rico Dowdle and WR Michael Pittman make them better. But the revived Ravens and Bengals make the division better, too. Still, the Steelers aren’t quite the same as the other teams in this group, who really need some breaks and health to rise a tier. The Colts are a strong team, for example, but only if QB Daniel Jones is healthy enough to start. And even then, he has to prove he can still play at his 2025 level. After he suffered a serious injury with the Giants, he wasn’t the same the following season. And speaking of the Giants, they are overflowing with optimism after landing head coach John Harbaugh. But there are questions about when their top WR (Malik Nabers) and RB (Cam Skattebo) will be healthy. Their defensive front was thinned out, too, by the Dexter Lawrence trade and several injuries. They are an improved team, but thin in a lot of areas. The thinnest team in this group, though, might be the Commanders, who seem to be betting everything on the healthy return of QB Jayden Daniels and a first-year coordinator (David Blough) — so much so that they didn’t bring in much offensive help. They did rebuild their defense with mostly solid but unspectacular players, and a stronger defense will help. But they really need Daniels to be the star he was as a rookie two years ago. Otherwise, they’ve got no shot. Tier 5: Playoff contenders, but nothing more Los Angeles Chargers (+1700)Dallas Cowboys (+2500)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5000)Atlanta Falcons (+12000)Carolina Panthers (+8000)Minnesota Vikings (+5000) This group comprises the teams on the playoff bubble who’ll need some help along the way to get in. Also, if they do get in, don’t expect them to win more than one game, if that. These are not Super Bowl contenders. The best team in this tier is the Chargers, who are also in a category that could be titled “Fool me once …” (you know the rest). It’s easy to want to trust a team coached by Jim Harbaugh and quarterbacked by Justin Herbert, but at this point we all know better. Their offensive line is still a liability, and with this franchise, something always goes wrong in the end. The same could be said of the Cowboys, who still have what might be the NFL’s best offense, but are still lacking on defense. The latter unit has improved, but enough to make them a Super Bowl contender? That would be a surprise. Those two at least have a slim chance of rising up a tier. The same can’t be said of the three teams in the NFC South: the Buccaneers, the Falcons, and the Panthers, who won the worst division in football last season via a tie-breaker after all three of these teams finished 8-9. They all have more questions than answers at the moment. The Bucs can be prolific, but they lost their best receiver to free agency. The Falcons seem loaded at every offensive position except quarterback. And the Panthers probably have the most promise, but are still waiting for QB Bryce Young to play like the No. 1 pick he once was. And speaking of first-round quarterbacks, that’s why the Vikings are in this group, too. They have an elite defense and plenty of offensive weapons. But the QB will either be J.J. McCarthy or a revived Kyler Murray, and neither inspire much confidence right now. Tier 4: Dangerous teams Kansas City Chiefs (+1500)Green Bay Packers (+1700)Detroit Lions (+1900)San Francisco 49ers (+1800) All four of these teams fall into an interesting gray area. None of them jump off the page as an immediate and obvious Super Bowl contender. But they all could be. And it would be foolish to rule any of them out. Take the Chiefs. Everyone’s down on them for the way they played last season, even before QB Patrick Mahomes got hurt. And no one is sure when he’ll be back. But if he’s back to form, do you really believe their dynasty is dead? The Chiefs also added RB Kenneth Walker III and they still have Andy Reid. If they can get into the playoffs, no one will want to play them. The same is true of the Packers and the Lions. Both teams can be dangerous and have good, experienced quarterbacks. The Lions are loaded on offense, assuming they’ve fixed their offensive line. They just need their defense to play better. And the Packers are strong on both sides of the ball, assuming they’re not hurt by the loss of defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. If QB Jordan Love and linebacker Micah Parsons stay healthy all season, Green Bay will be a tough out, too. The most interesting team in this category is the 49ers. I love what they’ve done this offseason on both offense and defense, and the additions and some better health will make them a really dangerous team. The one thing to worry about, though, is their ridiculous travel schedule — 38,000 miles across 58 time zones, which are both NFL records. For a team that’s getting older and deals with a lot of injuries, that might be too tough to survive. But if they do survive the torturous regular season, move them up at least one tier, maybe two, when the postseason starts. Tier 3: Playoffs locks Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)Houston Texans (+1800)Chicago Bears (+2500)Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000) The biggest wild-card team in the NFL is probably the Bengals. Obviously, the healthy return of QB Joe Burrow makes them dangerous. They are loaded on offense and can outscore anyone. But did they do enough to fix an atrocious defense? Maybe, if DT Dexter Lawrence is a lot better than he was last year. Imagine if they had a defense like the Texans do, though. Or imagine if the Texans had the Bengals’ offense. That’s Houston’s problem. They might have the best defense in football. It’s championship-worthy. But they’re carrying an erratic offense, unless QB C.J. Stroud magically rediscovers his rookie form. The other two teams in this category are here because of their offense, too. The Bears have run Ben Johnson’s scheme to perfection, and if WR Rome Odunze can become elite, they might be unstoppable. Their defense, though, was ranked 29th last season. It remains to be seen if they did enough to fix it. As for the Jaguars, they went on an epic offensive run at the end of last season, and coach Liam Coen seems to be an offensive genius. But letting lead rusher RB Travis Etienne go was certainly a choice. It’ll take a committee to replace him, if they even can. Tier 2: Title contenders New England Patriots (+1600)Buffalo Bills (+1000)Baltimore Ravens (+1000)Philadelphia Eagles (+1600) All four of the teams in this category are good enough to make a Super Bowl run, though they’ll head into the season with enough unanswered questions to prompt at least a little pause. For example, there’s no reason to think the Patriots won’t be as good as they were last year, especially now that QB Drake Maye has his No. 1 WR in A.J. Brown. But they were the beneficiaries of a remarkably soft schedule last season that propelled them through the playoffs. The slate won’t be as easy this time around. There’s also a lot of competition in the still-stacked AFC. The Bills will be serious contenders as long as QB Josh Allen is healthy. But can D.J. Moore find his old form and be the No. 1 WR Allen so desperately needs? And the Ravens are dangerous again, as long as QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry are healthy. But belief in them requires a lot of faith in a first-year head coach (Jesse Minter). Over in the NFC, the Eagles are still as loaded as ever, though they did just trade their best WR (Brown). The real question, though, is whether first-year offensive coordinator Sean Mannion can fix what has sometimes been a dysfunctional offense — especially in the passing game — with QB Jalen Hurts. Tier 1: The front-runners Los Angeles Rams (+600)Seattle Seahawks (+1100)Denver Broncos (+2000) If you weren’t sure before, now you know: The Rams are going for it all, future be damned. That was clear by their offseason deals to fortify their secondary (with CBs Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie), and now it’s painfully obvious after their “F— them picks” deal for Myles Garrett, the reigning defensive player of the year. The one caveat to their chances is that their biggest threat comes from inside the division, with the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Seattle should be just as dangerous, even after losing RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency. Meanwhile, in the AFC, the Broncos would have made the Super Bowl last season if they hadn’t been playing with a backup quarterback in the AFC Championship Game. A healthy Bo Nix, plus the addition of WR Jaylen Waddle, makes them the team to beat, especially if they can navigate a difficult schedule and emerge with home-field advantage.