Sound Smart: 6 Observations From the 2026 NFL Combine

INDIANAPOLIS — There was plenty of discussion all last week regarding whether the 2026 NFL Draft class might underwhelm both at the combine and on the field this fall. Time will tell on the latter. But man, the top prospects were outstanding during their workouts in Indy. They demonstrated elite athleticism that, maybe, folks didn’t see coming. (I didn’t.) The 2026 class generated real buzz for draft day. I’m much more enthusiastic than I was at the start of last week. Welcome to “Sound Smart,” this time focusing on observations from the NFL Scouting Combine. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s offseason action. You might notice there are several notes that have nothing to do with the combine. That’s because the event plays host not just to draft prospects but to almost every NFL coach, GM, scout and agent. It’s a great time to dig deep into what’s to come this offseason. Let’s dive in. 1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW The castoff quarterback market will offer a massive opportunity. By now, it’s common knowledge that the QB options are especially limited this offseason. In the draft, there’s Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza (the presumptive No. 1 pick) — and that’s just about it. In free agency, the class should include Aaron Rodgers, Malik Willis, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith, among others. I predict that Willis is going to be the hottest ticket and top earner at roughly $30 million per year, which is relatively cheap for a starting QB — but of course, you have to keep in mind that he has started only six NFL games. It’s the offseason of the castoff quarterback. But there was a word that I kept hearing in Indianapolis when it came to the quarterbacks. Value. One QB-needy executive expressed confidence to me about his team’s search. And that was, in part, fueled by the prospect that the team wouldn’t have to make a large financial commitment to get a good quarterback. These QBs are not necessarily castoffs because they’re bad. Rodgers, Murray, Tua, Cousins and Smith — they’ve all been highly productive in recent seasons. You could contend that every single one of them was, at one point, a top 10 QB. And that’s why they’ve all been highly paid in recent seasons. In most cases, they were overpaid. That exorbitant pay actively interfered with their performance levels, because the bloated contract made life difficult for their team to provide the supporting cast that the QB so badly needed. The beauty of a guy like Smith or Tagovailoa, they’ve already made at least $100 million each during their careers. They shouldn’t need to bank a whole lot more than that. And so, when they look at contracts this offseason, they can pick the best situation — rather than the most lucrative deal. That’s where the opportunity comes into play. An NFL GM could find his QB1 and criminally underpay him. I’m not going to foolishly predict all of these quarterbacks can bounce back by taking $10 million per year. But I will say that there are some compelling places where these quarterbacks might be lining up to sign that contract. The Vikings. The Steelers. The Rams. The Chiefs. I also don’t hate the Falcons, given their talent on offense. Murray might not have looked great in Arizona at $55 million per year. But what about in Minnesota, where coach Kevin O’Connell is dialing up plays that get the ball in the hands of talented pass-catchers Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison? That actually sounds pretty good, right? Smith might have been a disaster in Las Vegas. But what if he was playing distributor to running back Bijan Robinson, receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts in Atlanta? That unit is stacked like the Seattle offense was when Smith finished fourth in NFL passing yards from 2022-2024. He could do it again, right? It’s not a sexy year to get a QB. But because of that, it might be a sensible one. 2. EDUCATED GUESSES ON THE OFFSEASON Here are 11 quick-fire takes, based on what I heard in Indianapolis. 3. WORKOUT WARRIORS Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq: He wasn’t just the fastest tight end ever at the combine, with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. He also measured in at a true 6-foot-3 (which some scouts thought wouldn’t happen). And despite being on the shorter side for a tight end, he hit a 43.5-inch vertical leap. He’s not the prototype at tight end, but he could still be remarkable if used properly. Ohio State LB Sonny Syles: His workout was so good that Ravens star Kyle Hamilton, probably the best safety in the NFL, said he got “framemogged” for a combine workout comparison. Styles’ measurables might’ve made him the most complete athlete in this class. Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman: If there’s a guy who might be able to go pound for pound with Styles, it’s Thieneman. And it’s not just that he ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash or jumped 41 inches in the vertical leap (or 10-feet-5-inches in the broad jump). It’s also that the film showed an elite safety and a three-year starter. Just an absurd workout. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: The measurables came in where you’d expect after watching his film, including his 4.36-second 40-yard dash (matching what Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs ran in 2023). But it was actually his movement skills in drills (not just running back drills but also receiver drills) that jumped — confirming that he would have no business sliding down the board. One scout told me something that echoed the sentiment around Indy: “Love is a better prospect than [Ashton] Jeanty.”Jeanty went No. 6 to the Raiders last season and rushed for 975 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. 4. SAVING HIS DRAFT STOCK There’s Mendoza. Then there’s Alabama’s Ty Simpson at QB2. But what about Garrett Nussmeier? If you’re a draft nerd or a college football fan, you’ll know that there were high hopes for LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier in 2026. He had high hopes for himself, too. In Indy, he said he returned to school this past season to win the national championship. And no doubt, he wanted to land in Round 1 of this year’s draft, given his pedigree. After all, his father, Doug Nussmeier, is a former NFL QB and currently the offensive coordinator for the Saints. For Garrett, things haven’t quite gone according to plan. He helped the Tigers upset then No. 4 Clemson in the season opener, which started a four-game LSU win streak. But it has been mostly bad news from there. For most of the season, Nussmeier played through a “torso injury,” which clearly hampered his game. And at the end of the year, he couldn’t keep the Tigers competitive with the nation’s top teams — suffering blowout losses to Texas A&M and Alabama. “Hopefully the next few weeks go really well for him and he can get back to where he should be — in the first round,” Joe Sloan, former LSU OC and current Kentucky OC, told me by phone last week. “All it takes is a couple teams to go, ‘You know what, we got the opportunity to do this. Let’s look at the entirety of all the information and make the right decision.’” I’m not sure Nussmeier did what he needed to do to solidify his spot as QB3 — and the first round might be a pipe dream. “He played well in 2024 — not so great in 2025,” a high-ranking AFC executive told me. “His combine performance was OK overall. He did have a couple nice throws. Meetings will be important for him the rest of the spring, and pro day.” Nussmeier probably can’t leapfrog Simpson as the draft’s QB2. But the LSU product can probably secure a Day 2 draft slot as a team’s developmental project. If that’s a team with a track record of success at the position, it will probably be what’s best for the QB. 5. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN How the Seahawks triggered Drake Maye’s mental lapses in the Super Bowl. Even after all the film breakdown of the Seahawks’ Super Bowl win, I went to the combine wanting to better understand how cornerback Devon Witherspoon became the hero of the game — and in the most unlikely way. How did the Witherspoon blitzes go so right? A source familiar with the Super Bowl game plan laid out how the Seahawks fooled Maye so many times with Witherspoon. He was, after all, the real Super Bowl MVP. His series of blitzes on third down completely changed the complexion of the game — contributing to New England picking up just six of 15 third downs and snagging an interception to close out the game. The Seahawks recognized an opportunity to use New England’s two-by-one receiver sets to disguise their cornerback blitzes. Every time, Witherspoon came from the two-receiver side — right out of the slot. As good as Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels usually is at exploiting matchups, that formation ended up giving the Seahawks a Trojan Horse to get into New England’s backfield on third down. To make matters worse for the Patriots, Witherspoon ended up being an especially apt blitzer, in part because — as he explained it — he was exploiting New England’s propensity to overset (sliding toward the sideline), which opened up interior rushes (by a speedy, slippery 185-pound cornerback). The Patriots must have known the blitz was in Seattle’s repertoire, especially after seeing it the first time. But Maye just couldn’t recognize it, even with indicators (often a safety standing over the blitzing cornerback). “He got caught napping,” a source said. Maye’s intellectual maturation went exponential in 2026, but he had yet to hit the heights he needed for the Super Bowl against Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, undoubtedly the smartest defensive mind in football. 6. WHAT WE LEARNED Broncos coach Sean Payton gave up playcalling to retain OC Davis Webb, per source. It was surprising to see a tenured coach like Payton turn over playcalling at this point in his career. But it wasn’t for a lack of dominance or confidence. Instead, it was to make room for a young voice. There were several teams interested in hiring Webb as their offensive coordinator — including but not limited to the Buffalo Bills. To keep Webb, Payton offered playcalling duties “as a part of the deal,” per a team source. Payton will continue to contribute heavily during the week on the game plan while also weighing in on the playcalling during the games. But Payton knew he had to keep Webb. And this was, apparently, the only way. While on the topic of playcalling, I found it interesting to hear that Payton admitted internally to the Broncos that he did not regret going for it on fourth down against the Patriots in the AFC Championship — a play that ultimately determined the outcome of the game. Payton said he regretted the play call, per a source. It was fourth-and-1 from the 14-yard line, and Payton dialed up a play-action throw from Jarrett Stidham. No one was open, and the backup QB threw an interception. Payton was right to own the poor play call. It was a mess. The decision not to kick a field goal — that’s one that’ll fuel offseason discussion.